US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Fed-Speak Return/Heavy Data Latter Half Wk

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:40 GMT Mar 24/18:40 EST Mar 24

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Returning from their media blackout last Friday, eight

speakers from the Federal Reserve will discuss their economic outlook and pivot

in monetary policy views to a more dovish tone in the week ahead. 

     Barclays economists said the "FOMC's assessment of economic conditions

darkened somewhat relative to the January meeting, with the statement noting

that economic growth had 'slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter' and

that 'recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and

business spending". 

     Headline sensitivity remains with markets keen on anything to do with

US/China trade negotiations, and of course Brexit. Data releases, meanwhile,

pick up gradually through the week.

     U.S. Treasury auctions include 13-, 26W bills on Monday, 52W bills and $40B

2Y notes on Tuesday, $41B 5Y notes on Wednesday and $32B 7Y notes auctioned

Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

     - Monday: Dallas Fed manufacturing index; Chi Fed Pres Evans speaking from

Hong Kong and Phi Fed Pres Harker from London.

     - Tuesday: Housing starts and building permits for February; FHFA and

Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes; Redbook retail sales; Conference Board

confidence. 

     Barclays economists "forecast housing starts to decline 3.0% m/m, bringing

the level to 1193k annualized in February, and to pay back some of the sharp

18.6% spike during the previous month."

     - Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications for March; January trade balance; Q4

current account balance.

     Nomura economists said "After posting a wider-than-expected trade deficit

of $59.8bn in December, we think that the deficit will narrow considerably to

$55.0bn in January as exports rebound while imports soften from December

levels."

     - Thursday: Weekly claims; Revised Q4 GDP; Feb NAR pending home sales

index.

     RBS NatWest economists estimate that "GDP will be revised down from 2.6% to

2.3% between the BEA's initial and revised reports."

     - Friday: February personal income; Mar MNI Chicago PMI; Feb new home

sales; Mar Michigan sentiment index. 

     Morgan Stanley economists say "nominal personal spending is set to rebound

0.4% in January, not quite fully reversing its 0.5% decline in December.

Incorporating this month's CPI and PPI units, our forecast for January core PCE

inflation is 0.15%M, which would hold the year-over-year rate at 1.9%. Headline

inflation should rise 0.02%, lowering the year-over-year rate to 1.4% from

1.7%."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

25-Mar 0200 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Credit Suisse Asian Inv Conf, HK, Q&A

25-Mar 0630 Phi Fed Pres Harker, economic outlook, OMFIF, London, Q&A

25-Mar 1030 Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing index (13.1, --)

25-Mar 1130 US TSY $48B 13W bill auction (912796RV3)

25-Mar 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796SK6)

26-Mar 0800 Phi Fed Pres Harker, eco-outlook, ECB/DBundesbank meet, GR, Q&A

26-Mar 0830 Feb housing starts (1.210M est)

26-Mar 0830 Feb building permits (1.300M est)

26-Mar 0830 Mar Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Index (10.0, --)

26-Mar 0855 23-Mar Redbook retail sales m/m

26-Mar 0900 Jan FHFA Home Price Index (0.3%, --)

26-Mar 0900 Jan Case-Shiller Home Price Index (-0.2, --)

26-Mar 1000 Mar Richmond Fed Mfg Index (16, --)

26-Mar 1000 Mar Conference Board confidence (131.4, 133.0)

26-Mar 1030 Mar Dallas Fed services index (2.0, --)

26-Mar 1130 US TSY $26B 52W bill auction (912796SH3)

26-Mar 1300 US TSY $40B 2Y note auction (9128286K1)

26-Mar 2030 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren, Credit Suisse Asian Inv Conf, HK, Q&A

27-Mar 0700 22-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications

27-Mar 0830 Jan trade balance (-$57.5B est)

27-Mar 1000 Q4 current account balance (-$131.8B est)

27-Mar 1030 22-Mar crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

27-Mar 1300 US TSY $41B 5Y note auction (9128286J4)

27-Mar 1900 KC Fed Pres George, eco-outlook/mon-pol, Money Marketeers of NY

28-Mar 0830 23-Mar jobless claims (221k, 223k)

28-Mar 0830 Q4 GDP (3rd) (2.6%, 2.4%)

28-Mar 0830 Q4 GDP Price Index (1.8%, 1.8%)

28-Mar 1000 Feb NAR pending home sales index (103.2, --)

28-Mar 1030 22-Mar natural gas stocks w/w

28-Mar 1100 Mar Kansas City Fed Mfg Index

28-Mar 1130 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, panel discussion workforce development, income

mobility and income inequality, Comm Club, Atl, GA, Q&A.

28-Mar 1300 US TSY $32B 7Y note auction (9128286L9)

28-Mar 1315 NY Fed Pres Williams moderated discussion on economy w/Kenneth

Rivera-Robles, Pres Puerto Rico Ch of Comm, San Juan

28-Mar 1500 Feb farm prices

28-Mar 1630 27-Mar Fed weekly securities holdings

28-Mar 1820 StL Fed Pres Bullard, economy/mon-pol, Wisc Economy (CROWE)'s Spring

Outlook Forum, Madison, WI, Q&A

29-Mar 0830 Feb personal income (-0.1%, 0.3%)

29-Mar 0830 Jan current dollar PCE (-0.5%, --)

29-Mar 0830 Jan total PCE price index (0.1%, 0.3%)

29-Mar 0830 Jan core PCE price index (0.2%, 0.2%)

29-Mar 0900 Mar ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index (55.09, --)

29-Mar 0925 NY Fed Pres Williams, workforce development, St. Thomas, USVI.

29-Mar 0945 Mar MNI Chicago PMI (64.7, 62.0)

29-Mar 1000 Mar Michigan sentiment index (f) (97.8 est)

29-Mar 1000 Feb new home sales (618k est)

29-Mar 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

29-Mar 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

29-Mar 1200 16/17 grain stocks

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]