US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: May Employ, Fed Speak Ahead Sat Blackout

CHICAGO (MNI) - The week ahead focus will be on Monday's manufacturing ISM

survey for May, ADP private payrolls data Wednesday and May nonfarm and private

payrolls on Friday.

Multiple Fed speaker engagements and public conferences through the week, last

chance before they enter their blackout period on Saturday June 8 through June

20.

U.S. Treasury auctions limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday, 4- and 8W bills

Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: May NA-made light vehicle sales throughout session; May Markit Mfg

Index; Apr construction spending; May ISM Manufacturing Index. 

Morgan Stanley economists note "indications from the regional Fed manufacturing

surveys in May have been mixed. Taken together, these early readings point to a

0.2 point drop in the May ISM index, down to a reading of 52.6 from 52.8 in

April."

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch economists posit the ISM manufacturing index

"should edge down to 52.0 from 52.8 but remain in expansion territory. The risks

are skewed to the downside in the manufacturing sector, however, owing to the

US/China trade tensions and the cyclical auto slowdown."

- Tuesday: Redbook retail sales; May ISM-NY current conditions; Apr factory new

orders.

- Wednesday: May ADP private payrolls; May Markit Services Index; May ISM

Non-manufacturing Index; Jun help-wanted online ratio; Fed Beige Book for

upcoming FOMC meeting (June 18-19).

"Consistent with our forecast for Friday's BLS employment report" Nomura

economists "expect ADP to report a gain of 170k in private employment during

May." On the ISM nonmanufacturing index, Nomura forecasts a "2.5pp decline to

53.0 for the May ISM nonmanufacturing index."

- Thursday: May challenger layoff plans; weekly jobless claims; Apr trade

balance; non-farm productivity and unit labor costs; Q1 Service Revenue; May

Treasury STRIPS and Fed weekly securities holdings.

"Based on the advance goods trade balance report for April," Nomura economists

said they "expect a slight widening of the trade gap to $50.3bn in April from

$50.0bn in March. The advance report indicates that nominal goods exports fell

sharply in the month, while goods imports also declined."

- Friday: May nonfarm and private payrolls, unemployment rate and avg hourly

earnings; Apr wholesale inventories and sales; Q2 StL and NY Fed Real GDP

Nowcasts; April consumer credit.

Barclays economists "look for another month of solid growth in employment in

April, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 175k and private payrolls increasing by

170k. This would bring the three-month average change in nonfarm payrolls to

197k, or moderately below where employment growth has been for the past year."

Morgan Stanley "expect net job gains of 189,000 in May, which would still

represent a robust pace of hiring on top of the 263,000 print in the prior

month. "

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

03-Jun  -   May NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR (7.1m, --)

03-Jun 0945 May Markit Mfg Index (final) (50.6, 50.6)

03-Jun 1000 Apr construction spending (-0.9%, 0.4%)

03-Jun 1000 May ISM Manufacturing Index (52.8, 52.9)

03-Jun 1325 StL Fed Pres Bullard, Econ/Mon-Pol, Chi Un League Club, Q&A

03-Jun 2145 SF Fed Pres Mary Daly, Asian Bank/Fin Symposium, Singapore

04-Jun Chi Fed conf: conducting/formulating/communicating mon-pol day one

04-Jun 0830 NY Fed Pres Williams, "Building Cultural Capital/Fncl Services Ind:

Emerging Practices, Risks and Opportunities", NY Fed

04-Jun 0855 01-Jun Redbook retail sales m/m

04-Jun 0945 May ISM-NY current conditions (77.3, --)

04-Jun 1000 Apr factory new orders (1.9%, --)

04-Jun 1000 Apr factory orders ex transport (0.7%, --)

05-Jun Chi Fed conf: conducting/formulating/communicating mon-pol day two

05-Jun 0700 31-May MBA Mortgage Apps

05-Jun 0815 May ADP private payrolls (275k, --)

05-Jun 0945 May Markit Services Index (final) (50.9, --)

05-Jun 0945 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Housing Forum/affordability, Q/A

05-Jun 1000 May ISM Non-manufacturing Index (55.5, --)

05-Jun 1000 Jun help-wanted online ratio (103.7, --)

05-Jun 1030 31-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

05-Jun 1400 Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC meeting (June 18-19)

06-Jun 0730 May challenger layoff plans (10.9%, --)

06-Jun 0830 01-Jun jobless claims (215k, --)

06-Jun 0830 Apr trade balance (-$50B, --)

06-Jun 0830 Q1 non-farm productivity (f) (3.6%, --)

06-Jun 0830 Q1 unit labor costs (f) (-0.9%, --)

06-Jun 0840 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, Boston College Finance Conf

06-Jun 1000 Q1 Service Revenue

06-Jun 1030 31-May natural gas stocks w/w

06-Jun 1300 NY Fed Pres Williams, keynote remarks C. Peter McColough Series: Int

Economics/Cncl Foreign Relations, NY, Q&A

06-Jun 1500 May Treasury STRIPS Holdings

06-Jun 1630 05-Jun Fed weekly securities holdings

07-Jun 0100 SF Fed Pres Mary Daly, Asian Bank/Fin Symposium, Singapore 

07-Jun 0830 May nonfarm payrolls (263k, --)

07-Jun 0830 May private payrolls (236k, --)

07-Jun 0830 May unemployment rate (3.6%, --)

07-Jun 0830 May average hourly earnings (0.2%, --)

07-Jun 0830 May average workweek, all workers (34.4hrs, --)

07-Jun 1000 Apr wholesale inventories (-0.1%, --)

07-Jun 1000 Apr wholesale sales (2.3%, --)

07-Jun 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

07-Jun 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

07-Jun 1500 Apr consumer credit

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

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