US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: Midweek Focus FOMC Minutes, CPI, PPI

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:40 GMT Apr 7/18:40 EST Apr 7

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Slow start to the week ahead, focus more on midweek with

the release of the FOMC March minutes and CPI on Wednesday, PPI Thursday.

     Multiple Fed speakers with Vice Chair Richard Clarida figured prominently. 

     TD Securities economists said Clarida "should continue to sound very

cautious on the global outlook and stress patience given muted inflation. He may

suggest allowing a significant overshoot before hiking again."

     U.S. Treasury auctions include 13- and 26W bills on Monday, 3Y, 10Y and 30Y

bonds on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

     Salient data highlights (estimates):

     - Monday: February factory new orders; March Employment Trends Index (ETI);

NY Fed expectations survey for April.

     With markets likely still digesting Friday's employment data Citi

economists note Monday's factory orders is "not usually a market mover. Given

global manufacturing trends though, we expect a subdued number after the measly

+0.1% in January."

     - Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Index; Redbook retail sales; JOLTS job

openings and quit levels for February; IBD/TIPP Optimism Index.  

     Nomura economists "expect labor demand to cool as economic momentum slows,"

adding that "labor market turnover held at 4.1%, slightly below the recent 4.2%

peak."

     - Wednesday: CPI; Atlanta Fed inflation; Mar Kansas City Fed LMCI; Mar

Treasury budget balance; March FOMC minutes.

     After February lagged, Morgan Stanley economists expect March CPI to

accelerate by 0.22% "slightly above the six-month average of 0.19%. With a jump

in energy prices along with a solid gain in food prices, we see headline CPI

advancing 0.47%."

     On March minutes, RBS NatWest economists aren't expecting "much new

information to be revealed ... especially since numerous Fed officials have

spoken since the March 20th gathering and their "wait-and-see" message has been

consistent with the March FOMC dot plot, policy statement and Chair Powell's

press conference." 

     RBS said "perhaps one of the more interesting aspects of the FOMC minutes

may be the degree of concern among the Committee concerning downside risks to

the inflation outlook."

     - Thursday: Weekly claims; March final PPI; weekly securities holdings.

     Barclays economists estimate "final demand PPI to have increased 0.4% m/m

in March, driven by a rebound in energy prices as well as a modest increase in

food and core prices. For core PPI (excluding food and energy) we forecast a

0.2% m/m increase."

     Barclays adds "headline PPI inflation slowed at the end of last year as a

result of the weakness in energy prices and we expect this weakness to continue

in the first half of 2019." 

     - Friday: Import/export price index levels for March; April Michigan

sentiment index; GDP Nowcasts from the NY and St Louis Fed.

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

08-Apr 1000 Feb factory new orders (0.1%, -0.6%)

08-Apr 1000 Feb factory orders ex transport (-0.2%, --)

08-Apr 1000 Mar ETI (111.16, --)

08-Apr 1100 Apr NY Fed expectations survey

08-Apr 1130 US TSY $42B 13W bill auction (912796RZ4)

08-Apr 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796RF8)

09-Apr 0600 Mar NFIB Small Business Index (101.7, --)

09-Apr 0855 06-Apr Redbook retail sales m/m (0.0%, --)

09-Apr 1000 Feb JOLTS job openings level (7.581m, --) 

09-Apr 1000 Feb JOLTS quits rate (2.3%, --)

09-Apr 1000 Apr IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (55.7, --)

09-Apr 1300 US TSY $38B 3Y note auction (9128286M7)

09-Apr 1845 US Fed VC Clarida, Fed's Review Mon/Pol Strategy, Tools, and

Communication Practices, Fed Mn Spring Inst Conf, Q&A

10-Apr 0700 05-Apr MBA Mortgage Applications

10-Apr 0830 Mar CPI (0.2%, 0.2%)

10-Apr 0830 Mar CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.1%, --)

10-Apr 1000 Apr Atlanta Fed inflation

10-Apr 1030 05-Apr crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

10-Apr 1100 Mar Kansas City Fed LMCI

10-Apr 1150 US Fed VC Clarida, transition to risk-free rates progress, FSB

Roundtable on reforming major interest rate benchmarks, DC

10-Apr 1300 US TSY $24B 10Y note auction (9128286B1)

10-Apr 1400 March FOMC minutes release

10-Apr 1400 Mar Treasury budget balance (-$179.0B est)

11-Apr 0830 06-Apr jobless claims (202K, 210K)

11-Apr 0830 Mar Final Demand PPI (0.1%, 0.3%)

11-Apr 0830 Mar PPI ex. food and energy (0.1%, 0.2%)

11-Apr 0830 Mar PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.1%, --)

11-Apr 0930 US Fed VC Clarida, econ outlook, mon/pol summit, DC

11-Apr 0935 NY Fed Pres Williams, Neighborhood & Housing Dev conf, NY Q&A

11-Apr 0940 StL Fed Pres Bullard, eco/mon-pol outlook, Tupelo Mo, Q&A

11-Apr 1030 05-Apr natural gas stocks w/w

11-Apr 1300 US TSY $16B 30Y bond auction (912810SF6)

11-Apr 1600 US Fed Gov Bowman, Community Banking in the Age of Innovation, Fed

Family Luncheon, San Francisco, California.

11-Apr 1630 10-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings

12-Apr 0830 Mar imports price index (0.6%, 0.4%)

12-Apr 0830 Mar exports price index (0.6%, --)

12-Apr 1000 Apr Michigan sentiment index (p) (98.4, 98.3)

12-Apr 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

12-Apr 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

12-Apr 1230 NY Fed VP Stiroh, Cyber Risk to Fncl Stability conf NY

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]