Free Trial

US Credit Mkt Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales, Fed In Blackout

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 23:40 GMT Dec 9/18:40 EST Dec 9
     CHICAGO (MNI) - The week ahead should be relatively quiet with the Federal
Reserve entering it's self imposed blackout period that started at midnight
Friday, December 7 and runs through December 20, the day after the final policy
announcement for the year.
Data-wise, CPI on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Friday should draw the most
attention.
Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions include $39B 13- and $36B 26W bills on Monday,
$38B 3Y notes on Tuesday, $24B 10Y notes on Wednesday and $16B 30Y bonds on
Thursday.
Salient data highlights (estimates):
- Monday: Oct JOLTS job openings level; Oct JOLTS quits rate; Dec NY Fed
expectations survey; $39B 13- and $36B 26W bill auctions.
- Tuesday: Nov Final Demand PPI (0.6% prior, -0.1% estimate); $38B 3Y note
auction.
On PPI, Morgan Stanley economists "look for core PPI (excluding food, energy,
and trade services) to rise 0.20%M in November, roughly in line with the
three-month and six-month average."
- Wednesday: Nov CPI (.3% prior, 0.0% estimate); $24B 10Y note auction.
RBC/NatWest economists said the decline in gasoline prices is likely to "weigh
on CPI" offsetting a "relatively-strong 0.2% (0.236%) increase in the core
index, leading to a flat headline CPI figure in November."
RBC said their "forecast for the overall CPI index would pull the year-over-year
growth rate down to 2.2% in November from 2.5% in October."
Nomura economists "expect core CPI to increase a steady 0.2% m-o-m and
industrial production to highlight healthy ongoing momentum in industrial
activity in November."
- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims (215k est); November import/export price
indexes; Nov Treasury budget balance (-$204.0b); $16B 30Y Bond auction.
On weekly claims, Nomura said that "despite the recent uptick in initial jobless
claims, likely the result of inclement weather events and holiday-related
volatility, the labor market is likely to remain healthy in an economy that, for
the moment, continues to grow above potential."
- Friday: Retail sales (0.8% prior, 0.2% estimate); industrial production (0.1%
prior, 0.5% est); capacity utilization (78.4% prior, 78.7% est). 
Morgan Stanley economists said they "look for a 0.5% month-over-month gain in
core retail sales (which we define as retail sales and food services excluding
auto dealers, gas stations and home improvement stores)."
RBC/NatWest said retail sales control looks "poised for a 0.7% sequential
advance in November. We look for strong trends in chain-store sales to translate
into a strong month for retail activity more broadly."
Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):
- Dec 10 Nov ETI (110.72, --) 1000ET
- Dec 10 Oct JOLTS job openings level (700.9k, --) 1000ET
- Dec 10 US Tsy $39B 13W auction (912796RB7) 1130ET
- Dec 10 US Tsy $36B 26W auction (912796RU5) 1130ET
- Dec 10 Oct JOLTS quits rate (2.4%, --)
- Dec 10 Dec NY Fed expectations survey
- Fed in Blackout through December 20
- Dec 11 Nov NFIB Small Business Index (107.4, --) 0600ET
- Dec 11 Nov Final Demand PPI (0.6%, -0.1%) 0830ET
- Dec 11 Nov PPI ex. food and energy (0.5%, 0.2%) 0830ET
- Dec 11 Nov PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.2%, --) 0830ET
- Dec 11 08-Dec Redbook retail sales m/m (0.8%, --) 0855ET
- Dec 11 Nov Kansas City Fed LMCI 1100ET
- Dec 11 US Tsy $38B 3Y note auction (9128285R7) 1300ET
     - Dec 12 07-Dec MBA Mortgage Applications (2.0%, --) 0700ET
- Dec 12 Nov CPI (.3%, 0.0) 0830ET
- Dec 12 Nov CPI Ex Food and Energy (.2%, .2%) 0830ET
- Dec 12 Dec Atlanta Fed inflation (.2%, --) 1000ET
- Dec 12 07-Dec crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-0.73m bbl, --)
- Dec 12 US Tsy $24B 10Y note auction (9128285M8) 1300ET
     - Dec 13 08-Dec jobless claims (231k, 215k) 0830ET
- Dec 13 Nov imports price index (0.5%, -1.5%) 0830ET
- Dec 13 Nov exports price index (0.4%, --) 0830ET
- Dec 13 09-Dec Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET
- Dec 13 07-Dec natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET
- Dec 13 US Tsy $16B 30Y Bond auction (912910SE9) 1300ET
- Dec 13 Nov Treasury budget balance (0.00, -$204.0b) 1400ET
- Dec 13 12-Dec Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET
     - Dec 14 retail sales (0.8%, 0.2%)  0830ET
- Dec 14 retail sales ex. motor vehicle (0.7%, 0.2%)  0830ET
- Dec 14 retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.3%, --) 0830ET
- Dec 14 industrial production (0.1%, 0.5%) 0915ET
- Dec 14 capacity utilization (78.4%, 78.7%) 0915ET
- Dec 14 Markit Mfg Index (flash) (55.3, --) 0945ET
- Dec 14 Markit Services Index (flash) (54.7, --) 0945ET
- Dec 14 business inventories (0.3%, 0.6%) 1000ET
- Dec 14 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET
- Dec 14 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_ACTIVE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); });