US Credit Mkt Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales, Fed In Blackout

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 23:40 GMT Dec 9/18:40 EST Dec 9

     CHICAGO (MNI) - The week ahead should be relatively quiet with the Federal

Reserve entering it's self imposed blackout period that started at midnight

Friday, December 7 and runs through December 20, the day after the final policy

announcement for the year.

Data-wise, CPI on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Friday should draw the most

attention.

Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions include $39B 13- and $36B 26W bills on Monday,

$38B 3Y notes on Tuesday, $24B 10Y notes on Wednesday and $16B 30Y bonds on

Thursday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Oct JOLTS job openings level; Oct JOLTS quits rate; Dec NY Fed

expectations survey; $39B 13- and $36B 26W bill auctions.

- Tuesday: Nov Final Demand PPI (0.6% prior, -0.1% estimate); $38B 3Y note

auction.

On PPI, Morgan Stanley economists "look for core PPI (excluding food, energy,

and trade services) to rise 0.20%M in November, roughly in line with the

three-month and six-month average."

- Wednesday: Nov CPI (.3% prior, 0.0% estimate); $24B 10Y note auction.

RBC/NatWest economists said the decline in gasoline prices is likely to "weigh

on CPI" offsetting a "relatively-strong 0.2% (0.236%) increase in the core

index, leading to a flat headline CPI figure in November."

RBC said their "forecast for the overall CPI index would pull the year-over-year

growth rate down to 2.2% in November from 2.5% in October."

Nomura economists "expect core CPI to increase a steady 0.2% m-o-m and

industrial production to highlight healthy ongoing momentum in industrial

activity in November."

- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims (215k est); November import/export price

indexes; Nov Treasury budget balance (-$204.0b); $16B 30Y Bond auction.

On weekly claims, Nomura said that "despite the recent uptick in initial jobless

claims, likely the result of inclement weather events and holiday-related

volatility, the labor market is likely to remain healthy in an economy that, for

the moment, continues to grow above potential."

- Friday: Retail sales (0.8% prior, 0.2% estimate); industrial production (0.1%

prior, 0.5% est); capacity utilization (78.4% prior, 78.7% est). 

Morgan Stanley economists said they "look for a 0.5% month-over-month gain in

core retail sales (which we define as retail sales and food services excluding

auto dealers, gas stations and home improvement stores)."

RBC/NatWest said retail sales control looks "poised for a 0.7% sequential

advance in November. We look for strong trends in chain-store sales to translate

into a strong month for retail activity more broadly."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Dec 10 Nov ETI (110.72, --) 1000ET

- Dec 10 Oct JOLTS job openings level (700.9k, --) 1000ET

- Dec 10 US Tsy $39B 13W auction (912796RB7) 1130ET

- Dec 10 US Tsy $36B 26W auction (912796RU5) 1130ET

- Dec 10 Oct JOLTS quits rate (2.4%, --)

- Dec 10 Dec NY Fed expectations survey

- Fed in Blackout through December 20

- Dec 11 Nov NFIB Small Business Index (107.4, --) 0600ET

- Dec 11 Nov Final Demand PPI (0.6%, -0.1%) 0830ET

- Dec 11 Nov PPI ex. food and energy (0.5%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Dec 11 Nov PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.2%, --) 0830ET

- Dec 11 08-Dec Redbook retail sales m/m (0.8%, --) 0855ET

- Dec 11 Nov Kansas City Fed LMCI 1100ET

- Dec 11 US Tsy $38B 3Y note auction (9128285R7) 1300ET

     - Dec 12 07-Dec MBA Mortgage Applications (2.0%, --) 0700ET

- Dec 12 Nov CPI (.3%, 0.0) 0830ET

- Dec 12 Nov CPI Ex Food and Energy (.2%, .2%) 0830ET

- Dec 12 Dec Atlanta Fed inflation (.2%, --) 1000ET

- Dec 12 07-Dec crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-0.73m bbl, --)

- Dec 12 US Tsy $24B 10Y note auction (9128285M8) 1300ET

     - Dec 13 08-Dec jobless claims (231k, 215k) 0830ET

- Dec 13 Nov imports price index (0.5%, -1.5%) 0830ET

- Dec 13 Nov exports price index (0.4%, --) 0830ET

- Dec 13 09-Dec Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- Dec 13 07-Dec natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Dec 13 US Tsy $16B 30Y Bond auction (912910SE9) 1300ET

- Dec 13 Nov Treasury budget balance (0.00, -$204.0b) 1400ET

- Dec 13 12-Dec Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

     - Dec 14 retail sales (0.8%, 0.2%)  0830ET

- Dec 14 retail sales ex. motor vehicle (0.7%, 0.2%)  0830ET

- Dec 14 retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.3%, --) 0830ET

- Dec 14 industrial production (0.1%, 0.5%) 0915ET

- Dec 14 capacity utilization (78.4%, 78.7%) 0915ET

- Dec 14 Markit Mfg Index (flash) (55.3, --) 0945ET

- Dec 14 Markit Services Index (flash) (54.7, --) 0945ET

- Dec 14 business inventories (0.3%, 0.6%) 1000ET

- Dec 14 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- Dec 14 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]