US Credit Mkt Wk Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales, Ind Production

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Salient data releases in the week ahead include Consumer

Price Index on Wednesday, Retail Sales Thursday and Industrial Production

Friday. The Federal Reserve is now out of the pre-FOMC blackout period with

multiple speakers on tap.

     Corporate debt issuance is expected to pick up in the coming week while the

US Treasury will auction a whopping $164B total bills (4-, 8-, 13- and 26W) when

US markets return from extended Veterans day holiday weekend Tuesday.

Data and Speaker highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Foreign Exchange & Interest Rates Closed

- Tuesday: Limited second tier data with NFIB Small Business Index, Redbook

retail sales, NY Fed expectations survey and Treasury budget balance. US

Treasury $164B total bills (4-, 8-, 13- and 26W) auctions.

     Multiple Fed speakers to hit the circuit. At midmorning (1000ET)

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will make welcoming

remarks and answer questions at the 2018 Regional Economics Conference on

Immigration in MN, US Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lael Brainard to speak at

the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Conference on Fintech and the New

Financial Landscape.

     Later in the afternoon Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick

Harker will answer audience questions at the Fintech and the New Financial

Landscape Conference in Philadelphia (1420ET); San Francisco Federal Reserve

Bank President Mary Daly will lecture and answer questions at Boise State

University, Idaho (1700ET).

- Wednesday: Data main event with Consumer Price Index (0.3% est).

     Morgan Stanley economists "expect core goods prices to rebound in October

with a 0.16% gain after dropping 0.27% in September and 0.29% in August. Along

with continued strength in core services, which we see up 0.23% in October, this

implies a 0.22% rise in overall core CPI."

     TD Securities economists "expect CPI to pickup to 2.5% on gasoline prices

and base effects. Core CPI should also rise 0.2% (2.2% y/y) on components that

drove the downside in the prior two months (apparel, used vehicles, OER). Much

attention will be given to OER, which in the prior month posted a soft 0.2%

rise. This looks like a blip given vacancy rates, and we expect both OER and

rents to rebound."

     US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Governor Randal Quarles

will provide semi-annual testimony (0900ET) on the efforts, activities,

objectives, and plans of the Federal Reserve with respect to the conduct of

supervision and regulation of depository institution holding companies and other

financial firms supervised by the Federal Reserve to the House of

Representatives Financial Services Committee.

     Later in the evening (1700ET), Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert

Kaplan and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to discuss national and global

economic issues, with audience Q&A.

- Thursday: Flood of data includes weekly jobless claims (213k), October

import/export price index (0.1%), and October retail sales (0.6%).

     Deutsche Bank economists said "elevated consumer confidence and a labor

market that continues to tighten bodes well for retail sales going forward.

Headline retail sales (+0.9% vs. +0.1%) may get a boost from hurricane recovery

efforts, particularly with respect to car sales and building supplies."

     Nomura economists "expect a healthy 0.4% m-o-m increase in 'core' retail

sales in October, following a 0.5% gain in September. Consumer sentiment remains

elevated despite recent stock market volatility and heightened concerns about

global trade. The labor market remains strong and income gains have been steady.

     Fed speakers continue with Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman

Randal Quarles delivering the "Semiannual Testimony on the Federal Reserve's

Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System," in Washington D.C. at

1000ET, while Fed Chairman Powell will observe post-Hurricane Harvey recovery

efforts and take part in a listening session to hear about recovery at the

community level in Houston, TX.

     Later in the day, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic and

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will answer audience

questions at separate events.

- Friday: Industrial Production (0.0%) and Capacity Utilization (78.1%) rounds

out the week.

     Deutsche Bank expects Friday's "industrial production (+0.3%) report will

provide an important update on manufacturing, especially in light of the fact

that the growth of business fixed investment moderated in Q3 from its heady

first-half pace."

     Nomura, on the other hand, expects "soft 0.1% m-o-m increase in industrial

production in October, following a 0.3% advance in September. The aggregate

production in October was likely weighed down by a sharp pullback in autos

production."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Nov 12 Foreign Exchange & Interest Rates Closed

- Nov 12 SF Fed Pres Daly, Rgnl Econ Devel Eastern Idaho", Q&A. 1430ET

- Nov 13 Oct NFIB Small Business Index (107.9, --) 0600ET

- Nov 13 10-Nov Redbook retail sales m/m (0.1%, --) 0855ET

- Nov 13 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, Rgnl Econ Conf Immigrt'n in Mn Q&A. 1000ET

- Nov 13 US Fed Gov Brainard, Philly Fed, "AI/New Fncl Landscape", PA. 1000ET

- Nov 13 Nov NY Fed expectations survey 1100ET

- Non 13 US Tsy $45B 13Wk bill auction (912796QX0) 1130ET

- Non 13 US Tsy $39B 26Wk bill auction (912796RQ4) 1130ET

- Non 13 US Tsy $50B 4Wk bill auction (912796UD9) 1300ET

- Non 13 US Tsy $30B 8Wk bill auction (912796UH0) 1300ET

- Nov 13 Oct Tsy budget balance ($119.1b, -$124B) 1400ET

- Nov 13 Philly Fed Pres Harker, New Fncl Landscape Conf, PA, Q&A. 1420ET

- Nov 13 SF Fed Pres Daly, Boise State Univ, Id, audience Q&A. 1700ET

- Nov 14 09-Nov MBA Mortgage Applications (-4.0%, --) 0700ET

- Nov 14 Oct CPI (0.1%, 0.3%) 0830ET

- Nov 14 Oct CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Nov 14 US Fed VC/Gov Quarles, semi-ann'l testimony efforts, activity,

objectives, plans of supervs'n/regult'n depository inst'n, Hse Rep's Fncl Servcs

Comm, 0900ET

- Nov 14 Nov Atlanta Fed inflation (2.3%, --) 1000ET

- Nov 14 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, Fed Chair Powell, ntnl/global econ, Q&A. 1700ET

- Nov 15 10-Nov jobless claims (214k, 213k) 0830ET

- Nov 15 Oct imports / export price index (0.1%) 0830ET

- Nov 15 Oct retail sales (0.1%, 0.6%), ex. motor veh (-0.1%, 0.6%) 0830ET

- Nov 15 Oct retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.0%, --) 0830ET

- Nov 15 Nov Empire Manufacturing Index (21.0) 0830ET

- Nov 15 Nov Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (22.2, 20.0) 0830ET

- Nov 15 11-Nov Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- Nov 15 Sep business inventories (0.5%, 0.3%) 1000ET

- Nov 15 US Fed VC/Gov Quarles, "Semian'l Testimony Fncl System," D.C. 1000ET

- Nov 15 09-Nov natural gas stocks w/w (65.0Bcf, --) 1030ET

- Nov 15 09-Nov crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (5.78m bbl, --) 1100ET

- Nov 15 Fed Chair Powell, post-Hurricane Harvey recovery efforts, TX 1100ET

- Nov 15 At Fed Pres Bostic, GIC's CB Series Conf, Spain, Q&A 1300ET

- Nov 15 MN Fed Pres Kashkari moderated Q&A Mn AgriGrowth Cncl. MN, Q&A 1500ET

- Nov 15 14-Nov Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Nov 16 NY Fed Business Leaders Index (9.4, --) 0830ET

- Nov 16 Industrial Production (0.3%, 0.0%) 0915ET

- Nov 16 Capacity Utilization (78.1%, 78.1%) 0915ET

- Nov 16 Advance NSA Service Revenue 1000ET

- Nov 16 BLS state payrolls 1000ET

- Nov 16 Nov Kansas City Fed Mfg Index (8, --) 1100ET

- Nov 16 Q4 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (2.9%, --) 1100ET

- Nov 16 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.7%, --) 1115ET

- Nov 16 Chi Fed Pres Evans, moderated Q&A/FI Forum, Q&A, IL 1130ET

- Nov 16 Sep net TICS flows 1600ET

- Nov 16 Sep long term TICS flows 1600ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]