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US Credit Mkt Wk Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales, Ind Production

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Salient data releases in the week ahead include Consumer
Price Index on Wednesday, Retail Sales Thursday and Industrial Production
Friday. The Federal Reserve is now out of the pre-FOMC blackout period with
multiple speakers on tap.
     Corporate debt issuance is expected to pick up in the coming week while the
US Treasury will auction a whopping $164B total bills (4-, 8-, 13- and 26W) when
US markets return from extended Veterans day holiday weekend Tuesday.
Data and Speaker highlights (estimates):
- Monday: Foreign Exchange & Interest Rates Closed
- Tuesday: Limited second tier data with NFIB Small Business Index, Redbook
retail sales, NY Fed expectations survey and Treasury budget balance. US
Treasury $164B total bills (4-, 8-, 13- and 26W) auctions.
     Multiple Fed speakers to hit the circuit. At midmorning (1000ET)
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will make welcoming
remarks and answer questions at the 2018 Regional Economics Conference on
Immigration in MN, US Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lael Brainard to speak at
the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Conference on Fintech and the New
Financial Landscape.
     Later in the afternoon Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick
Harker will answer audience questions at the Fintech and the New Financial
Landscape Conference in Philadelphia (1420ET); San Francisco Federal Reserve
Bank President Mary Daly will lecture and answer questions at Boise State
University, Idaho (1700ET).
- Wednesday: Data main event with Consumer Price Index (0.3% est).
     Morgan Stanley economists "expect core goods prices to rebound in October
with a 0.16% gain after dropping 0.27% in September and 0.29% in August. Along
with continued strength in core services, which we see up 0.23% in October, this
implies a 0.22% rise in overall core CPI."
     TD Securities economists "expect CPI to pickup to 2.5% on gasoline prices
and base effects. Core CPI should also rise 0.2% (2.2% y/y) on components that
drove the downside in the prior two months (apparel, used vehicles, OER). Much
attention will be given to OER, which in the prior month posted a soft 0.2%
rise. This looks like a blip given vacancy rates, and we expect both OER and
rents to rebound."
     US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Governor Randal Quarles
will provide semi-annual testimony (0900ET) on the efforts, activities,
objectives, and plans of the Federal Reserve with respect to the conduct of
supervision and regulation of depository institution holding companies and other
financial firms supervised by the Federal Reserve to the House of
Representatives Financial Services Committee.
     Later in the evening (1700ET), Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert
Kaplan and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to discuss national and global
economic issues, with audience Q&A.
- Thursday: Flood of data includes weekly jobless claims (213k), October
import/export price index (0.1%), and October retail sales (0.6%).
     Deutsche Bank economists said "elevated consumer confidence and a labor
market that continues to tighten bodes well for retail sales going forward.
Headline retail sales (+0.9% vs. +0.1%) may get a boost from hurricane recovery
efforts, particularly with respect to car sales and building supplies."
     Nomura economists "expect a healthy 0.4% m-o-m increase in 'core' retail
sales in October, following a 0.5% gain in September. Consumer sentiment remains
elevated despite recent stock market volatility and heightened concerns about
global trade. The labor market remains strong and income gains have been steady.
     Fed speakers continue with Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman
Randal Quarles delivering the "Semiannual Testimony on the Federal Reserve's
Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System," in Washington D.C. at
1000ET, while Fed Chairman Powell will observe post-Hurricane Harvey recovery
efforts and take part in a listening session to hear about recovery at the
community level in Houston, TX.
     Later in the day, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic and
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will answer audience
questions at separate events.
- Friday: Industrial Production (0.0%) and Capacity Utilization (78.1%) rounds
out the week.
     Deutsche Bank expects Friday's "industrial production (+0.3%) report will
provide an important update on manufacturing, especially in light of the fact
that the growth of business fixed investment moderated in Q3 from its heady
first-half pace."
     Nomura, on the other hand, expects "soft 0.1% m-o-m increase in industrial
production in October, following a 0.3% advance in September. The aggregate
production in October was likely weighed down by a sharp pullback in autos
production."
Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):
- Nov 12 Foreign Exchange & Interest Rates Closed
- Nov 12 SF Fed Pres Daly, Rgnl Econ Devel Eastern Idaho", Q&A. 1430ET
- Nov 13 Oct NFIB Small Business Index (107.9, --) 0600ET
- Nov 13 10-Nov Redbook retail sales m/m (0.1%, --) 0855ET
- Nov 13 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, Rgnl Econ Conf Immigrt'n in Mn Q&A. 1000ET
- Nov 13 US Fed Gov Brainard, Philly Fed, "AI/New Fncl Landscape", PA. 1000ET
- Nov 13 Nov NY Fed expectations survey 1100ET
- Non 13 US Tsy $45B 13Wk bill auction (912796QX0) 1130ET
- Non 13 US Tsy $39B 26Wk bill auction (912796RQ4) 1130ET
- Non 13 US Tsy $50B 4Wk bill auction (912796UD9) 1300ET
- Non 13 US Tsy $30B 8Wk bill auction (912796UH0) 1300ET
- Nov 13 Oct Tsy budget balance ($119.1b, -$124B) 1400ET
- Nov 13 Philly Fed Pres Harker, New Fncl Landscape Conf, PA, Q&A. 1420ET
- Nov 13 SF Fed Pres Daly, Boise State Univ, Id, audience Q&A. 1700ET
- Nov 14 09-Nov MBA Mortgage Applications (-4.0%, --) 0700ET
- Nov 14 Oct CPI (0.1%, 0.3%) 0830ET
- Nov 14 Oct CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET
- Nov 14 US Fed VC/Gov Quarles, semi-ann'l testimony efforts, activity,
objectives, plans of supervs'n/regult'n depository inst'n, Hse Rep's Fncl Servcs
Comm, 0900ET
- Nov 14 Nov Atlanta Fed inflation (2.3%, --) 1000ET
- Nov 14 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, Fed Chair Powell, ntnl/global econ, Q&A. 1700ET
- Nov 15 10-Nov jobless claims (214k, 213k) 0830ET
- Nov 15 Oct imports / export price index (0.1%) 0830ET
- Nov 15 Oct retail sales (0.1%, 0.6%), ex. motor veh (-0.1%, 0.6%) 0830ET
- Nov 15 Oct retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.0%, --) 0830ET
- Nov 15 Nov Empire Manufacturing Index (21.0) 0830ET
- Nov 15 Nov Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (22.2, 20.0) 0830ET
- Nov 15 11-Nov Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET
- Nov 15 Sep business inventories (0.5%, 0.3%) 1000ET
- Nov 15 US Fed VC/Gov Quarles, "Semian'l Testimony Fncl System," D.C. 1000ET
- Nov 15 09-Nov natural gas stocks w/w (65.0Bcf, --) 1030ET
- Nov 15 09-Nov crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (5.78m bbl, --) 1100ET
- Nov 15 Fed Chair Powell, post-Hurricane Harvey recovery efforts, TX 1100ET
- Nov 15 At Fed Pres Bostic, GIC's CB Series Conf, Spain, Q&A 1300ET
- Nov 15 MN Fed Pres Kashkari moderated Q&A Mn AgriGrowth Cncl. MN, Q&A 1500ET
- Nov 15 14-Nov Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET
- Nov 16 NY Fed Business Leaders Index (9.4, --) 0830ET
- Nov 16 Industrial Production (0.3%, 0.0%) 0915ET
- Nov 16 Capacity Utilization (78.1%, 78.1%) 0915ET
- Nov 16 Advance NSA Service Revenue 1000ET
- Nov 16 BLS state payrolls 1000ET
- Nov 16 Nov Kansas City Fed Mfg Index (8, --) 1100ET
- Nov 16 Q4 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (2.9%, --) 1100ET
- Nov 16 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.7%, --) 1115ET
- Nov 16 Chi Fed Pres Evans, moderated Q&A/FI Forum, Q&A, IL 1130ET
- Nov 16 Sep net TICS flows 1600ET
- Nov 16 Sep long term TICS flows 1600ET
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]

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