US Credit Mkt Wk Ahead: Fed Blackout, Tsy Refunding, PMI, NFP

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Heavy data drop in the week ahead, highlights include ADP

private payrolls data for September early Wednesday and October MNI Chicago PMI

report later in the morning, North American-made light vehicle sales Thursday

and headline non-farm payrolls for October, average hourly earning and

unemployment rate early Friday.

     The Federal Reserve entered their blackout period Saturday, October 27,

which runs through Friday, November 9, the day after the second to last FOMC

policy announcement for the year.

     Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and

staff can speak publicly or grant interviews -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank

President Charles Evans will give opening remarks and answer audience questions

at the Sixth Annual Summit on Regional Competitiveness Monday (0945ET). Current

economic conditions or monetary policy will not be discussed, however.

     The U.S. Treasury will auction $45B 13-week and $39B 26-week bills Monday

(1130ET), and will announce 3- and 10Y note, 30Y bond auctions for the following

week on Wednesday.

     TD Securities analysts said they "expect" the "Treasury to again increase

coupon auction sizes at the November refunding meeting, the 4th consecutive

quarter of coupon increases. This will entail a $1bn/month increase in 2-5yr

auction sizes, but only a $1bn/quarter increase in 7-30yr sizes."

Data and Speaker highlights (estimates):

- Monday: September personal income (+0.4%) and total PCE price index (+0.2%).

     Nomura economists "expect a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in personal

income...with steady readings of the household saving rate, continued gains in

income should remain supportive for spending."

     On PCE deflators, Nomura estimates a "steady 0.2% (0.155%) m-o-m increase

in the core PCE price index in September."

     RBS NatWest economists "look for an uptick of just 0.1% in the core PCE

deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation measure), which would push down the

year/year core PCE inflation rate from 2.0% in August to 1.9% in September."

- Tuesday: Redbook retail sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, October

Conference Board confidence (134.9). 

     Morgan Stanley economists estimate October Conference Board confidence to

"soften just slightly in October to a reading of 137.8" after last months read

"surprised to the upside...rising 3.7 points to a level of 138.4, an 18-year

high for the index."

- Wednesday: September ADP private payrolls (+190k), Q3 ECI (+0.8%), Q3 non-farm

productivity (+2.4%) and Oct MNI Chicago PMI (60.4, 60.4).

     Nomura economists "expect ADP to report a 170k increase in private

employment for October" and a "0.5% q-o-q increase in the employment cost index

in Q3, down from 0.8% in Q2" citing an "expected slowdown in the pace of

benefits growth."

- Thursday: October NA-made light vehicle sales, Oct Markit Manufacturing Index,

October ISM Manufacturing Index, non-farm productivity (2.4%) and unit labor

costs (0.7%).

- Friday: Nonfarm payrolls (190k), unemployment rate (3.7%), average hourly

earnings (+0.2%), September factory new orders (+0.5%).

     TD Securities economists "expect payrolls to come in on the weak side at

160k" due to the effects of Hurricane Michael, which "should more than offset

any rebound from Hurricane Florence, which contributed to the weaker September

print." 

     TD estimates "wages to lend a more upbeat tone to the report and rise 0.3%,

taking the y/y pace to 3.2%," with "risk for downward revisions."

     Closer to the mean estimate of +190k, Nomura economists "expect the October

employment report next week to show a 175k increase in nonfarm payroll

employment and solid wage growth. A 0.2% m-o-m increase in AHE will likely

translate into 3.1% on a 12-month basis as base effects help raise the y-o-y

rate 0.3pp. In addition, we expect the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%."

     On the high-side of estimates, RBS NatWest economists "forecast that

nonfarm payrolls rebounded 225,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at

3.7%. Average hourly earnings may have increased by just 0.1%, although, thanks

to base effects, even a 0.1% rise would likely have moved the year/year pace up

from 2.9% in September to 3.1% (strongest since April 2009)."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Oct 29 Sep personal income (0.3%, 0.4%) 0830ET

- Oct 29 Sep current dollar PCE (0.3%, 0.4%) 0830ET

- Oct 29 Sep total PCE price index (0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Oct 29 Sep core PCE price index (0.0%, --) 0830ET

- Oct 29 NY Fed Sn VP Testa, LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conf, Boston, MA. 0900ET

- Oct 29 Chi Fed Pres Evans, 6TH Ann Summit Reg'l Competitiveness, Chi, Q&A.

0945ET

- Oct 29 Oct Dallas Fed manufacturing index (28.1, --) 1030ET

- Oct 29 US Tsy $45B 13Y bill auction (912796PPB) 1130ET

- Oct 29 US Tsy $39B 26Y bill auction (912796RJO) 1130ET

- Oct 30 27-Oct Redbook retail sales m/m (0.0%, --) 0855ET

- Oct 30 Aug Case-Shiller Home Price Index (0.1, --) 0900ET

- Oct 30 Q3 housing vacancies rate 1000ET

- Oct 30 Oct Conference Board confidence (138.4, 134.9) 1000ET

- Oct 30 Oct Dallas Fed services index (25.6, --) 1030ET

- Oct 30 Sep farm prices

- Oct 31 26-Oct MBA Mortgage Applications 0700ET

- Oct 31 Sep ADP private payrolls (230k, 190k) 0815ET

- Oct 31 Q3 ECI (0.6%, 0.8%) 0830ET

- Oct 31 Oct ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index (56.16, --) 0900ET

- Oct 31 Oct help-wanted online ratio 1000ET

- Oct 31 26-Oct crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w 1030ET

- Oct 31 US Fed Brd open meeting discuss proposed rules modifying enhanced

prudential standard framework for large banking orgs, 1030ET

- Oct 31 Oct MNI Chicago PMI (60.4, 60.4) 1045ET

- Oct 31 US Tsy 3- and 10Y note, 30Y bond auction announcement 

- Nov 01 Oct NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR (10.2m, --) 

- Nov 01 Oct challenger layoff plans (70.9%, --) 0730ET

- Nov 01 27-Oct jobless claims (215k, 212k) 0830ET

- Nov 01 Q3 non-farm productivity (p) (2.9%, 2.4%) 0830ET

- Nov 01 Q3 unit labor costs (p) (-1.0%, 0.7%) 0830ET

- Nov 01 Oct Markit Mfg Index (final) 0945ET

- Nov 01 28-Oct Bloomberg comfort index (60.1, --) 0945ET

- Nov 01 Oct ISM Manufacturing Index (59.8, 58.9) 1000ET

- Nov 01 Sep construction spending (0.1%, 0.4%) 1000ET

- Nov 01 NY Fed Exec VP Stiroh, "How Post-Crisis Regulatory Regime Has

Influenced Shifts in Banking Business Models", FT Bank Forum, NY 1010ET

- Nov 01 NY Fed Exec VP Stiroh, Risk Mngmnt, FT Bank Forum, NY, Q&A. 1025

- Nov 01 26-Oct natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Nov 01 31-Oct Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Nov 02 Oct nonfarm payrolls (134k, 190k) 0830ET

- Nov 02 Oct private payrolls (121k, 190k) 0830ET

- Nov 02 Oct unemployment rate (3.7%, 3.7%) 0830ET

- Nov 02 Oct average hourly earnings (0.3%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Nov 02 Oct average workweek, all workers (34.5hrs, 34.5hrs) 0830ET

- Nov 02 Sep trade balance (-$53.4B) 0830ET

- Nov 02 Oct ISM-NY current conditions (72.5, --) 0945ET

- Nov 02 Sep factory new orders (2.3%, 0.5%) 1000ET

- Nov 02 Sep factory orders ex transport (0.1%, --) 1000ET

- Nov 02 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]