US Daily Oil Summary: US Crude Production Revised Up

US Crude production is seen at 13.21m b/d in 2024, a modest upward revision of 20k b/d, while 2025 output is forecast at 13.72m b/d, according to the EIA’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook.

• Growth in US oil production is unlikely until the second half of the year according to Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects.
• US crude oil inventories likely rose in the week to April 5, while gasoline and distillate stocks probably fell, according to a survey by the WSJ.
• Prices for heavier crude grades along the US Gulf have climbed in recent weeks – trading at near parity with lighter grades.
• Exxon Mobil’s 252kbpd Joliet refinery shut down the 275kbpd CDU and 50kbpd cat reformer on 6 April.
• Marathon’s 291kb/d Catlettsburg refinery in northeastern Kentucky cut run rates by as much as 38% due to a shut lock on the Ohio River.
• The USD had been trending largely stable, with price action subdued given the lack of data/speakers and the close proximity to key US inflation data tomorrow.
• The House of Representatives is braced for instability as it returns from recess with a raft of contentious legislation which could end in the ouster of House Speaker Mike Johnson.
• An initial forecast from Colorado State University suggests an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024 primarily due to record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic Sea surface temperatures.