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US DATA: ADP Beats But Unlikely To Alter Private Payroll Estimates

US DATA
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  • ADP employment was stronger than expected in September at 143k (cons 125k) after a slightly upward revised 103k (initial 99k) in August.
  • It has had mixed success at tracking private payrolls growth, at least compared to the latter in its latest guise, undershooting private payrolls growth by 15k in August but before that overshooting by 37k in July and 58k in June.
  • With a latest three-month average overshoot of 27k, we don’t expect it to materially alter current consensus of 125k for private payrolls released on Friday.
  • Looking by industry, small firms appear to be under some pressure, with their first monthly decline in employment (-13k) since Nov’23, with gains led by largest firms with 500+ employees (+86k, most since May) and middling sized firms with 50-249 employees (+49k). 
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  • ADP employment was stronger than expected in September at 143k (cons 125k) after a slightly upward revised 103k (initial 99k) in August.
  • It has had mixed success at tracking private payrolls growth, at least compared to the latter in its latest guise, undershooting private payrolls growth by 15k in August but before that overshooting by 37k in July and 58k in June.
  • With a latest three-month average overshoot of 27k, we don’t expect it to materially alter current consensus of 125k for private payrolls released on Friday.
  • Looking by industry, small firms appear to be under some pressure, with their first monthly decline in employment (-13k) since Nov’23, with gains led by largest firms with 500+ employees (+86k, most since May) and middling sized firms with 50-249 employees (+49k).