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US DATA: Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Lifts To 2.5% For Q3

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q3 has been revised up to 2.5% from 2.1% in its Sep 4 update.
  • The update takes into account of ISM Services, payrolls (which drove the bulk of the upward revision) and today’s wholesales report.
  • It limits implied pullback from GDP growth of 2.8% in Q2, to still exceed the 2.1% averaged in 1H24 after a particularly strong 4.1% in 2H23 as the economy continues to not show signs of imminent recession.  
  • Latest contributions see consumer spending adding a strong 2.4pps in Q3 vs the 1.6pps in Q2 and average 1.3pps in 1H24 after the 2.15 in 2H23.
  • The main outright drags are seen coming from residential investment (-0.35pps after the -0.1pp in Q2) and net exports (-0.4pps after -0.8pps).
  • Changes in inventories will also offer a large drag in sequential terms, currently seen dragging -0.2pps after some volatile quarters with +0.8pp in Q2 and -0.4pp in Q1. 
Source: Atlanta Fed

 

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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q3 has been revised up to 2.5% from 2.1% in its Sep 4 update.
  • The update takes into account of ISM Services, payrolls (which drove the bulk of the upward revision) and today’s wholesales report.
  • It limits implied pullback from GDP growth of 2.8% in Q2, to still exceed the 2.1% averaged in 1H24 after a particularly strong 4.1% in 2H23 as the economy continues to not show signs of imminent recession.  
  • Latest contributions see consumer spending adding a strong 2.4pps in Q3 vs the 1.6pps in Q2 and average 1.3pps in 1H24 after the 2.15 in 2H23.
  • The main outright drags are seen coming from residential investment (-0.35pps after the -0.1pp in Q2) and net exports (-0.4pps after -0.8pps).
  • Changes in inventories will also offer a large drag in sequential terms, currently seen dragging -0.2pps after some volatile quarters with +0.8pp in Q2 and -0.4pp in Q1. 
Source: Atlanta Fed