US DATA
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, rose slightly by 0.5 points to 46.6 in September. The Barometer has now been in a tight range between 45.3-47.4 for four consecutive months. The Barometer has remained in contractionary territory for 24 of the past 25 months.
- The marginal rise was due to two of the five subcomponents improving significantly: Order Backlogs and Employment. Meanwhile, reductions in Supplier Deliveries, New Orders, and Production restricted the upward move.
- Order Backlogs increased 5.3 points, although it still remains below the 2024 high in June. This was due to the highest proportion of respondents reporting unchanged backlogs since February.
- Employment rose 5.0 points to 44.5, after two consecutive months of decline, with hiring in concentrated skills.
- Meanwhile Supplier Deliveries fell 4.9 points, after four successive months of increases. A reading above 50 may not be reflecting demand changes, instead possibly pointing to delays in supply chains.
- New Orders and Production both weakened 1.1 points, with the latter at 46.8 in September.
- Prices Paid remain elevated for the second consecutive month, rising by 8.3 points to 74.3, making it the highest since August 2023 and significantly above the year-to-date average of 64.6. This was due to nearly half of respondents reporting higher prices paid.
- Finally, Inventories dipped 3.6 points.
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