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US DATA: Core Durable Goods Orders Maintain Underwhelming Trend

US DATA
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  • Durable goods orders were overall as expected in preliminary October data, with the softer than expected 0.2% M/M (cons 0.5) in Oct offset by an upward revised -0.4% (initial -0.7%) in Sep.
  • Core orders offered a more clearcut downward surprise though, with -0.2% M/M (cons 0.1) in Oct after a downward revised 0.3% (initial 0.7%) in Sep.
  • Core shipments were more closely in line with expectations, rising 0.2% M/M (cons 0.1) after an unrevised -0.1% M/M.
  • Despite the relative miss, core durable goods orders continue to outperform shipments, rising 1.2% annualized on a 3m/3m basis vs -1.2% for shipments.
  • It suggests some upside for realized production in the months ahead although the trend remains subdued considering these are nominal series – see the broadly sideways trend in the bottom right chart below.  
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  • Durable goods orders were overall as expected in preliminary October data, with the softer than expected 0.2% M/M (cons 0.5) in Oct offset by an upward revised -0.4% (initial -0.7%) in Sep.
  • Core orders offered a more clearcut downward surprise though, with -0.2% M/M (cons 0.1) in Oct after a downward revised 0.3% (initial 0.7%) in Sep.
  • Core shipments were more closely in line with expectations, rising 0.2% M/M (cons 0.1) after an unrevised -0.1% M/M.
  • Despite the relative miss, core durable goods orders continue to outperform shipments, rising 1.2% annualized on a 3m/3m basis vs -1.2% for shipments.
  • It suggests some upside for realized production in the months ahead although the trend remains subdued considering these are nominal series – see the broadly sideways trend in the bottom right chart below.