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US DATA: Core PCE Details Confirm Increasingly Favorable Inflation Trends

US DATA
  • Core PCE inflation has now seen three consistently soft months up to July, for an average of just 1.7% annualized.
  • The Y/Y did indeed come in a tenth lower than what was out-dated consensus of 2.7% but that had been a close call even prior to yesterday’s softer revisions.
  • At 2.62% Y/Y, it drifted fractionally higher from 2.58% in June and 2.59% in May and should see some more notable upside pressure from base effects later this year.
  • Meanwhile, note that the six-month rate eased from 3.3% to 2.6% annualized, its first month below the Y/Y since January (after Powell originally cautioned when it was running higher), and with the three-month suggesting further downward momentum ahead.
  • Non-housing core services inflation at 0.21% M/M is also part of an increasingly favorable trend. It’s running at 2.0% annualized over three months whilst the six-month rate slowed from 3.9% to 2.8% and the Y/Y from 3.34% to 3.25%.

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