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US DATA: CPI Details: Supercore As Expected, Mixed Drivers

US DATA
  • Away from housing, supercore inflation was very much as expected at 0.21% M/M after two particularly weak prints averaging -0.05% M/M. These of course haven’t fed into supercore PCE (currently seen averaging 0.18% M/M in May-June) and the implications for PCE in July are mixed at first glance – we’ll update with analyst core PCE estimates in due course. 
  • One notable area for instance is medical care services (8% of core CPI). It saw a sharp decline of -0.34% M/M after 0.17% M/M, driven by hospital services (-1%) but with the limited medical service components that feed into core PCE little changed by our reckoning at ~0.2% M/M. 
  • There are two other offsetting moves within the details though: vehicle insurance surprised higher with 1.2% after 0.9% (a heavy 4% of core or 11% of supercore that isn’t included in PCE) but food away from home moderated sharply from 0.4% to 0.2% M/M for its second lowest monthly reading since early 2021 (not in core CPI but 7% of core PCE).

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