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US DATA: Dallas Fed Mfg Future Optimism Hits New Three-Year High

US DATA
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  • The penultimate of the five regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November, the Dallas Fed survey was mildly lower than expected at -2.7 (cons -1.8) to leave it near unchanged from -3.0 [Dallas in green lines in charts below].
  • That 0.3pt nudge higher sees it technically at is highest since Apr 2022 having started 2024 at a heavy -27.4.
  • The little change on the month belied a sharper deterioration in new orders (from -3.7 to -11.9, lowest since July), in part offset by a strong improvement in employment (+10pts to 4.9).
  • Manufacturing firms remain far more optimistic looking ahead, with the index for production six months ahead rising further from 42.4 to 44.0, a sixth consecutive monthly increase for its highest since Nov 2021.
  • This growing optimism is a trend broadly seen in Empire and Philly surveys. 
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  • The penultimate of the five regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November, the Dallas Fed survey was mildly lower than expected at -2.7 (cons -1.8) to leave it near unchanged from -3.0 [Dallas in green lines in charts below].
  • That 0.3pt nudge higher sees it technically at is highest since Apr 2022 having started 2024 at a heavy -27.4.
  • The little change on the month belied a sharper deterioration in new orders (from -3.7 to -11.9, lowest since July), in part offset by a strong improvement in employment (+10pts to 4.9).
  • Manufacturing firms remain far more optimistic looking ahead, with the index for production six months ahead rising further from 42.4 to 44.0, a sixth consecutive monthly increase for its highest since Nov 2021.
  • This growing optimism is a trend broadly seen in Empire and Philly surveys.