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US DATA: Dispersion-Based Disinflationary Progress Stalled In July

US DATA
  • Our dispersion measures for July CPI showed a partial reversal of June’s latest (but sequentially modest) disinflationary progress. 
  • 32% of ~190 categories across the entire CPI basket saw price increases of >3% Y/Y, vs a new recent low of 31% in June and the 2019 av of 24%. 
  • As for ~70 items across core goods, this share was 15.5% vs 14% in June as it continues to hover below the 2019 av of 18.5%. 
  • However, core services saw their share increase 2pps back to 65% of ~50 items, showing relatively little trend progress and is still far more elevated than the 38% in 2019. 
  • Charts below: 

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