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Free AccessUS Data: Fed Economic Projections Vs. Previous Estimates>
Below are the updated Federal Reserve projections of major economic
indicators published Wednesday:
Release for: March 2018
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
Data in Percent
Median (1)
2018 2019 2020 Longer Run
Change in real GDP 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8
December Projection 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8
--
Unemployment rate 3.8 3.6 3.6 4.5
December Projection 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.6
--
PCE inflation 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0
December Projection 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
--
Core PCE inflation 1.9 2.1 2.1 NA
December Projection 1.9 2.0 2.0 NA
--
Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path
Federal Funds Rate 2.1 2.9 3.4 2.9
December Projection 2.1 2.7 3.1 2.8
Central Tendency (2)
2018 2019 2020 Longer Run
Change in real GDP 2.6-3.0 2.2-2.6 1.8-2.1 1.8-2.0
December Projection 2.2-2.6 1.9-2.3 1.7-2.0 1.8-1.9
--
Unemployment rate 3.6-3.8 3.4-3.7 3.5-3.8 4.3-4.7
December Projection 3.7-4.0 3.6-4.0 3.6-4.2 4.4-4.7
--
PCE inflation 1.8-2.0 2.0-2.2 2.1-2.2 2.0
December Projection 1.7-1.9 2.0 2.0-2.1 2.0
--
Core PCE inflation 1.8-2.0 2.0-2.2 2.1-2.2 NA
December Projection 1.7-1.9 2.0 2.0-2.1 NA
--
Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path
Federal Funds Rate 2.1-2.4 2.8-3.4 3.1-3.6 2.8-3.0
December Projection 1.9-2.4 2.4-3.1 2.6-3.1 2.8-3.0
Range (3)
2018 2019 2020 Longer Run
Change in real GDP 2.5-3.0 2.0-2.8 1.5-2.3 1.7-2.2
December Projection 2.2-2.8 1.7-2.4 1.1-2.2 1.7-2.2
--
Unemployment rate 3.6-4.0 3.3-4.2 3.3-4.4 4.2-4.8
December Projection 3.6-4.0 3.5-4.2 3.5-4.5 4.3-5.0
--
PCE inflation 1.8-2.1 1.9-2.3 2.0-2.3 2.0
December Projection 1.7-2.1 1.8-2.3 1.9-2.2 2.0
--
Core PCE inflation 1.8-2.1 1.9-2.3 2.0-2.3 NA
December Projection 1.7-2.0 1.8-2.3 1.9-2.3 NA
--
Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path
Federal Funds Rate 1.6-2.6 1.6-3.9 1.6-4.9 2.3-3.5
December Projection 1.1-2.6 1.4-3.6 1.4-4.1 2.3-3.0
--
Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP)
and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from
the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the
year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage
rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding
food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the
average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year
indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her
assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections
represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each
variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy
and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for
the federal funds rate are the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8
percentage point) of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target
range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target
level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar
year or over the longer run. The June projections were made in
conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on
June 16-17, 2015.
1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the
projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of
projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle
projections.
2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest
projections for each variable in each year.
3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all
participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in
that year.
4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.
** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MAUDA$,MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.