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Free AccessUS Data Forecast Focus: April Industrial Prod Seen Up 0.6%
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.6% in April
following solid gains in the previous two months. Factory payrolls rose by
24,000 in April and the factory workweek rose to 41.1 hours. However, the ISM
production index fell to 57.2 in the current month from 61.0 in the previous
month. Utilities production is expected to continue its upward trend in the
month after a rebound in the previous month, as weather was a bit cooler than
normal, supporting heat use at a time when most of the country has normally shut
it off. Mining production is forecast to rise further after gains in February
and March. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.4% from 78.0% in
March.
Analysts sharply underestimated industrial production in both February and
March, with the latter month driven higher by across the board gains. Recent
April misses have been tilted toward underestimates as well, so another upside
surprise in possible in April as well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Industrial Production: Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
Forecast:
Median 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
High 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0
Low 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1
Actual result 0.2 0.9 -0.1 1.1 0.5 #N/A
Median-Actual 0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.7 -0.1 #N/A
Historical Comparison: Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
Median 0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.6
High 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.0
Low 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 0.2
Actual result 1.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.7 1.0
Median-Actual -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.4
Capacity Utilization: Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
Forecast:
Median 77.2 77.3 78.0 77.8 77.9 78.4
High 77.5 77.3 78.4 78.1 78.2 78.7
Low 77.1 77.2 77.0 77.4 77.7 78.2
Actual result 77.1 77.9 77.5 78.1 78.0 #N/A
Median-Actual 0.1 -0.6 0.5 -0.3 -0.1 #N/A
Historical Comparison: Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
Median 79.0 78.3 78.3 78.2 75.0 76.4
High 79.5 78.6 78.6 78.6 75.4 76.7
Low 78.6 77.8 77.8 77.7 74.5 76.2
Actual result 79.2 77.8 77.8 78.2 75.4 76.7
Median-Actual -0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.3
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex. GM 10.2 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.2 9.9
Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg 0.2 0.1 -0.1 1.0 -0.1 0.8
Factory Jobs (000's) 30 39 20 31 22 24
Auto Prod Jobs (000's) 3 3 0 4 1 -1
Mining Jobs (000's) 4 1 6 9 8 8
Levels:
ISM Mfg PMI 58.2 59.3 59.1 60.8 59.3 57.3
ISM Mfg Production 64.3 65.2 64.5 62.0 61.0 57.2
Phila. Fed Index 24.3 27.9 22.2 25.8 22.3 23.2
Empire State Index 20.9 19.6 17.7 13.1 22.5 15.8
Chicago PMI 65.6 67.8 65.7 61.9 57.4 57.6
Factory Workweek 40.9 40.8 40.7 41.0 40.9 41.1
Factory Overtime 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.7
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.