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Free AccessUS Data Forecast Focus: April PPI Seen +0.2%, Core +0.2%
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:35 GMT May 9/07:35 EST May 9
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in April after
a 0.3% gain in March. Energy prices are expected to surge after a dip in March,
with gasoline a driving factor, while food prices are expected to flatten after
surging in the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast
to rise 0.2% after a stronger than expected 0.3% increase in the previous month.
Analysts sharply underestimated final demand PPI in February and March, but
were closer to core PPI in those two months. The misses in the last ten April
reports suggest a slight risk of an overestimate for overall PPI, but an
underestimate for core PPI.
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall PPI Forecast:
Median 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2
Range High 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4
Range Low 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Actual result 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 #N/A
Median-Actual -0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 #N/A
Historical Comparison Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
Median 0.0 -0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
Range High 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4
Range Low -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Actual result -0.2 -0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.5
Median-Actual 0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.3
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
Core PPI Forecast:
Median 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Range High 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3
Range Low 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Actual result 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 #N/A
Median-Actual -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 #N/A
Historical comparison: Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
Median 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Range High 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Range Low 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Actual result 0.2 0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4
Median-Actual 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2
NOTE: From Jan. 2014
forward, forecast data are
for Final Demand PPI and
Core
Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index
(% chg) 0.8 -6.2 5.7 1.5 #N/A
ISM Mfg Index Price Index 69.0 72.7 74.2 78.1 79.3
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index 59.9 61.9 61.0 61.5 61.8
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.