US Data Forecast Focus: April PPI Seen +0.2%, Core +0.2%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:35 GMT May 9/07:35 EST May 9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in April after

a 0.3% gain in March. Energy prices are expected to surge after a dip in March,

with gasoline a driving factor, while food prices are expected to flatten after

surging in the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast

to rise 0.2% after a stronger than expected 0.3% increase in the previous month.

     Analysts sharply underestimated final demand PPI in February and March, but

were closer to core PPI in those two months. The misses in the last ten April

reports suggest a slight risk of an overestimate for overall PPI, but an

underestimate for core PPI.

                                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.2     0.4     0.1     0.1     0.2

Range High                           0.5     0.3     0.6     0.2     0.2     0.4

Range Low                            0.2     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2

Actual result                        0.4    -0.1     0.4     0.2     0.3    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.1    -0.2    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                               0.0    -0.6     0.2     0.1     0.3     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.0     0.3     0.2     0.5     0.4

Range Low                           -0.6    -0.9    -0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.1

Actual result                       -0.2    -0.7     0.6    -0.4     0.2     0.5

Median-Actual                        0.2     0.1    -0.4     0.5     0.1    -0.3

                                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.2     0.5     0.2     0.2     0.3

Range Low                            0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Actual result                        0.3    -0.1     0.4     0.2     0.3    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.3    -0.2     0.0    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                               0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2

Range Low                            0.1    -0.5    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.2     0.1     0.5    -0.2     0.1     0.4

Median-Actual                        0.0     0.0    -0.3     0.3     0.0    -0.2

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index

(% chg)                                      0.8    -6.2     5.7     1.5    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   69.0    72.7    74.2    78.1    79.3

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                59.9    61.9    61.0    61.5    61.8

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]