US Data Forecast Focus: August CPI Seen +0.3%, Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in August 

following a 0.1% rise in July. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound, 

as gasoline prices ticked higher and will continue to increase in the 

aftermath of the hurricanes. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after 

four straight 0.1% gains, which should still pull down the year/year 

rate. 

     Analysts slightly overestimated CPI in July, both including and 

excluding food and energy prices. Misses in August have been rare, but 

are generlly tilted to the high side when they do occur. 

                         Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3

 Range High                 0.1     0.3     0.0     0.2     0.2     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.1     0.2    -0.5     0.0     0.1     0.2

Actual result              -0.3     0.2    -0.1     0.0     0.1     #N/A

 vs median forecast         0.3     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1     #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                     0.2     0.6     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.1

 Range High                 0.3     0.9     0.3     0.1     0.1     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.1    -0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.4     0.6     0.1    -0.2    -0.1     0.2

 vs median forecast        -0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.0    -0.1

                          Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result              -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     #N/A

 vs median forecast         0.3     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     #N/A

Historical comparison:    Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.3

 vs median forecast         0.0     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.0    -0.1

Change in:

                                     Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.392   2.340   2.329   2.260   2.351

  mo/mo pct change                     #N/A    -2.2    -0.5    -3.0     4.0

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              68.5    60.5    55.0    62.0    62.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           57.6    49.2    52.1    55.7    57.9

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]