US Data Forecast Focus: August Final Demand PPI Seen +0.3%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in 

August after a surprise decline in July. Energy prices are forecast to 

rebound after a 0.3% decline in the previous month, with further gains 

in future months due to Hurricane Harvey. Excluding food and energy 

prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after a below-expectation 0.1% 

decline in the previous month. 

     Analysts overestimated both overall and core final demand PPI in 

July due to widespread weakness. The misses in the last 10 August 

releases have been tilted toward the low side, with three overestimates 

and five underestimates. Forecasts for core PPI have been fairly 

accurate, with five correct estimates in the last 10 years. 

                         Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Overall PPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.3

 Range High                 0.1     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.3     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.1    -0.3    -0.1     0.0     0.1

Actual result              -0.1     0.5     0.0     0.1    -0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast         0.1    -0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison    Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                     0.0     1.4     0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.1

 Range High                 0.9     2.0     0.4     0.1     0.1     0.2

 Range Low                 -0.5     0.5    -0.2    -0.1    -0.6    -0.1

Actual result               0.0     1.7     0.3     0.0     0.0     0.0

 vs median forecast         0.0    -0.3    -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.1

                         Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Core PPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                  0.0     0.1    -0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0

Actual result               0.0     0.4     0.3     0.1    -0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast         0.2    -0.2    -0.1     0.0     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

 Range High                 0.3     0.3     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0

Actual result               0.1     0.2     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.1

 less median forecast       0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0    -0.2     0.0

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward, forecast data are for Final Demand PPI and Core

                                    Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index (% chg)   2.0     2.1    -0.1    -2.9    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index             68.5    60.5    55.0    62.0    62.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index          57.6    49.2    52.1    55.7    57.9

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]