US Data Forecast Focus: August ISM Mfg Index Seen At 56.6>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to 

rebound modesty to a reading of 56.6 in August after a dip back to 56.3 

in July. Regional conditions data have suggested fairly strong growth. 

     Analysts correctly estimated the headline ISM index in July after 

underestimates in nine of the previous ten months. Recent August data 

over the last 10 years have been evenly split between overestimates and 

underestimates, though the underestimates have tended to be larger. 

Forecast:                Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

 Median                    57.0    56.5    54.4    55.5    56.3    56.6

 Range High                61.0    57.0    55.6    56.8    57.5    56.0

 Range Low                 56.4    55.6    53.8    54.5    55.0    57.5

Actual result              57.2    54.8    54.9    57.8    56.3    #N/A

 vs median forecast        -0.2     1.7    -0.5    -2.3     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                    48.5    49.9    54.5    56.6    52.5    52.0

 Range High                56.0    51.0    55.5    57.5    53.0    53.0

 Range Low                 47.0    49.0    53.3    55.8    51.8    51.5

Actual result              50.6    49.6    55.7    59.0    51.1    49.4

 vs median forecast        -2.1     0.3    -1.2    -2.4     1.4     2.6

                         Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

 MNI Chicago               57.7    58.3    59.4    65.7    58.9    58.9

 Phila. Fed Index          32.8    22.0    38.8    27.6    19.5    18.9

 Empire State Index        16.4     5.2    -1.0    19.8     9.8    25.2

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]