US Data Forecast Focus: August Payrolls Seen +180,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 180,000 

in August after stronger-than-expected readings in the previous two 

months. It remains to be seen if the impact from Amazon's attempt to 

hire 50,000 new workers will filter through to the payrolls figures this 

month, but it casts some upside risk on the data. The unemployment rate 

is expected to hold steady at 4.3%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 

0.2% after a 0.3% gain in the previous month. The average workweek is 

expected to stay at 34.5 for another month. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls in each of the last two 

months, as professional services and health care continued to impress. 

Past data for August point to a tendency to miss to the high side, which 

has happened in each of the last six years. 

Forecast:                  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

 Median                       175     195     183     170     181     180

 Range High                   210     225     231     210     220     200

 Range Low                    125     165     155     138     170     160

Actual original result         98     211     138     222     209    #N/A

 vs med. forecast              77     -16      45     -52     -28    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                        70     129     175     225     210     180

 Range High                   100     150     220     250     250     225

 Range Low                     -5      70     150     195     170     153

Actual original result          0      96     169     142     173     151

 vs med. forecast              70      33       6      83      37      29

                           Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

ISM Mfg Employment           58.9    52.0    53.5    57.2    55.2      NA

ISM Nonmfg Employment        51.6    51.4    57.8    55.8    53.6      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       31.8    30.3    30.0    32.0    33.2    35.4

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   12.8    10.9    11.7    13.6    14.5    18.1

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims              +14k    -18k    -10k     +9k     -8k     -2k

  4-week mvg avg              +1k     -4k     -2k     +4k     -1k     -4k

 Continuing claims            -5k    -65k    -63k    +21k    +20k    -11k

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH     1.7    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH     1.7

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    255     148     234     192     201     237

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]