US Data Forecast Focus: August Sales Seen +0.1%, Autos Weak>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in August 

after a surprise 0.6% increase in July, as auto sales were soft in part 

due to the hurricane-affected areas. The impact of Hurricane Harvey at 

the end of the month should be seen in several retail categories, but 

the real impact will likely be seen with September data. AAA reported 

that gasoline prices rose in mid-August from one month earlier after 

declines in recent months, which should offer some support to the 

ex-motor vehicles number, which is seen rising 0.5%. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated retail sales in July, as most 

components rose in the month. Upward revisions to the previous two 

months added to strength in July. Misses on past August data have been 

tilted toward overestimates,but there were also correct estimates in 

2014 and 2015. 

                         Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                    -0.3     0.6     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.1

 Range High                 0.2     0.8     0.2     0.2     1.0     0.7

 Range Low                 -0.6     0.4    -0.3     0.0     0.2    -0.3

Actual result              -0.2     0.4    -0.3    -0.2     0.6    #N/A

 vs median forecast:       -0.1     0.2     0.3     0.3    -0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                     0.3     0.8     0.4     0.6     0.2    -0.1

 Range High                 0.7     1.5     0.8     1.0     0.4     0.0

 Range Low                 -0.3     0.5     0.2     0.1     0.0    -0.3

Actual result               0.0     0.9     0.2     0.6     0.2    -0.3

 vs median forecast:        0.3    -0.1     0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2

                         Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.1     0.5     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.5

 Range High                 0.4     0.9     0.4     0.3     1.0     0.9

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.3    -0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

Actual result:              0.0     0.3    -0.3    -0.2     0.5     #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4    -0.2     #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                     0.3     0.8     0.3     0.2     0.0     0.3

 Range High                 1.0     1.5     0.7     0.6     0.3     0.4

 Range Low                  0.0     0.3     0.1     0.0    -0.2     0.1

Actual result               0.1     0.8     0.1     0.3     0.1    -0.1

 vs median forecast:        0.2     0.0     0.2    -0.1    -0.1     0.4

                                May-17  Jun-17   Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    4.3     4.2     4.0     4.2     4.0

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    8.6     8.5     8.8     8.7     8.3

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.392   2.340   2.329   2.260   2.351

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A     -2.2    -0.5    -3.0     4.0

Consumer confidence               119.4   117.6   117.3   120.0   122.9

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        14.0    12.5    12.6    13.6    12.6

 Home                               6.4     6.1     6.0     6.7     6.4

 Major appliance                   52.9    48.5    52.1    47.7    50.2

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]