US Data Forecast Focus: July ISM Mfg Index Seen At 52.0

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rebound only

modestly to a reading of 52.0 in July after a further decline to 51.7 in June.

Regional conditions data have been mixed in direction, but a further drop in the

MNI Chicago report adds considerable downside risk. 

     Analysts underestimated the June reading, as the index did not slip as

drastically as the regional data suggested. Misses in past July reports have

been mixed, with no clear leaning toward underestimates or overestimates.       

Forecast:                 Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19  Jul-19

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Median                      55.5    54.6    55.3    52.9    51.3    52.0

Range High                  57.5    56.0    56.2    54.0    53.0    54.3

Range Low                   53.0    53.3    54.7    51.7    50.0    50.5

Actual result               54.2    55.3    52.8    52.1    51.7    #N/A

Median-Actual                1.3    -0.7     2.5     0.8    -0.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17  Jul-18

Median                      52.2    56.0    53.7    53.0    56.3    59.5

Range High                  53.5    57.5    54.2    53.4    57.5    59.7

Range Low                   51.5    55.0    53.0    52.0    55.0    58.0

Actual result               55.4    57.1    52.7    52.6    56.3    58.1

Median-Actual               -3.2    -1.1     1.0     0.4     0.0     1.4

                          Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19  Jul-19

MNI Chicago                 64.7    58.7    52.6    54.2    49.7    44.4

Phila. Fed Index            -4.1    13.7     8.5    16.6     0.3    21.8

Empire State Index           8.8     3.7    10.1    17.8    -8.6     4.3

Richmond Fed Index            14      10       9       7       2     -12

Markit Mfg Index            53.0    52.4    52.6    50.5    50.6    50.0

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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