US Data Forecast Focus: March CPI Seen Flat, Core +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to come in flat in March following

an as-expected 0.2% rise in February. A decline in March 2017 due to falling

cell phone prices may lead to a rise in the year/year rate for both overall and

core CPI. For March, AAA reported a decrease in mid-month prices from February,

which could hold back gasoline prices in the CPI data. The core CPI is forecast

to rise 0.2% following an unsurprising 0.2% increase in February.

     Analysts correctly estimated both overall and core CPI in February, with

few surprises found in the report. The forecast history for March CPI is similar

to other months, small misses. However, the glowing exception was last year,

when the data came in well below expectations due to a drop off in cell phone

prices.

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                                 Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Overall CPI Forecast:

Median                              0.1     0.4     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.0

Range High                          0.2     0.5     0.2     0.5     0.3     0.1

Range Low                           0.0     0.3     0.0     0.2     0.1    -0.1

Actual result                       0.1     0.4     0.1     0.5     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       0.0     0.0     0.0    -0.2     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:           Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

Median                              0.3    -0.1     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.0

Range High                          0.4     0.2     0.3     0.4     0.4     0.1

Range Low                           0.1    -0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.2    -0.1

Actual result                       0.3    -0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1    -0.3

Median-Actual                       0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.1     0.3

                                 Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Core CPI Forecast:

Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                          0.3     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2

Range Low                           0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                       0.2     0.1     0.3     0.3     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       0.0     0.1    -0.1    -0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:           Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

Median                              0.2     0.2    -0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Range High                          0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2

Range Low                           0.0     0.1    -0.3     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                       0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.2     0.1    -0.1

Median-Actual                       0.0     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3

Change in:

                                         Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded

($/gal)                                   2.561   2.456   2.491   2.570   2.523

mo/mo pct change                           #N/A    -4.1     1.4     3.2    -1.8

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                  65.5    69.0    72.7    74.2    78.1

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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