US Data Forecast Focus: November ISM Mfg Index Seen At 57.4

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall further

to a reading of 57.4 in November after falling back further to 57.7 in October.

Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Philadelphia Fed, Dallas Fed,

and Richmond Fed indexes declining, but the Empire State and Kansas City

readings up. The MNI Chicago index rose sharply in the month, while the flash

Markit reading declined slightly to 55.4 in November from 55.7 in October.

     Analysts overestimated the October index, due in part to mixed signals from

the regional data. There have been underestimates the last two November reports,

but looking out over the last 10 years, there is no clear survey risk.

Forecast:                 Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Median                      58.2    59.5    57.9    60.0    59.0    57.4

Range High                  60.0    59.7    58.0    60.5    60.0    58.3

Range Low                   58.0    58.0    57.0    58.0    58.0    56.7

Actual result               60.2    58.1    61.3    59.8    57.7    #N/A

Median-Actual               -2.0     1.4    -3.4     0.2     1.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

Median                      51.6    55.8    57.9    50.5    52.3    58.0

Range High                  52.5    56.8    61.0    51.0    54.0    58.7

Range Low                   50.5    54.0    56.0    48.0    51.8    57.0

Actual result               49.5    57.3    58.7    48.6    53.2    58.2

Median-Actual                2.1    -1.5    -0.8     1.9    -0.9    -0.2

                          Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

MNI Chicago                 64.1    65.5    63.6    60.4    58.4    66.4

Phila. Fed Index            19.9    25.7    11.9    22.9    22.2    12.9

Empire State Index          25.0    22.6    25.6    19.0    21.1    23.3

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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