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MNI DATA FORECASTS: EZ Inflation, US Payrolls In Focus
US Data Forecast Focus: November ISM Mfg Index Seen At 57.4
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall further
to a reading of 57.4 in November after falling back further to 57.7 in October.
Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Philadelphia Fed, Dallas Fed,
and Richmond Fed indexes declining, but the Empire State and Kansas City
readings up. The MNI Chicago index rose sharply in the month, while the flash
Markit reading declined slightly to 55.4 in November from 55.7 in October.
Analysts overestimated the October index, due in part to mixed signals from
the regional data. There have been underestimates the last two November reports,
but looking out over the last 10 years, there is no clear survey risk.
Forecast: Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18
Median 58.2 59.5 57.9 60.0 59.0 57.4
Range High 60.0 59.7 58.0 60.5 60.0 58.3
Range Low 58.0 58.0 57.0 58.0 58.0 56.7
Actual result 60.2 58.1 61.3 59.8 57.7 #N/A
Median-Actual -2.0 1.4 -3.4 0.2 1.3 #N/A
Historical comparison: Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17
Median 51.6 55.8 57.9 50.5 52.3 58.0
Range High 52.5 56.8 61.0 51.0 54.0 58.7
Range Low 50.5 54.0 56.0 48.0 51.8 57.0
Actual result 49.5 57.3 58.7 48.6 53.2 58.2
Median-Actual 2.1 -1.5 -0.8 1.9 -0.9 -0.2
Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18
MNI Chicago 64.1 65.5 63.6 60.4 58.4 66.4
Phila. Fed Index 19.9 25.7 11.9 22.9 22.2 12.9
Empire State Index 25.0 22.6 25.6 19.0 21.1 23.3
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: firstname.lastname@example.org
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