US Data Forecast Focus: September Industrial Prod Seen Up 0.2%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:35 GMT Oct 16/07:35 EST Oct 16

     WASHINGTON (MNI)- Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in

September on a utilities surge that should be offset by softer readings for

manufacturing and mining production. Factory payrolls rose by 18,000 in

September, but auto production jobs were flat and the factory workweek shortened

to 40.8 hours. The ISM production index rose to 63.9 in the current month from

63.3 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to rise further in

the month due to unseasonably warm temperatures, while mining production is

forecast to maintain its string of gains, albeit a bit slower. Capacity

utilization is forecast to tick up to 78.2% from 78.1% in August.

     Analysts correctly estimated industrial production in August, but

historical data point to a strong chance of an underestimates for the September

data.

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Industrial Production:          Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

Forecast:

Median                             0.6     0.2     0.5     0.4     0.4     0.2

High                               1.0     0.5     0.7     0.7     0.7     0.6

Low                                0.1    -0.6     0.4     0.2    -0.3     0.1

Actual result                      0.7    -0.1     0.6     0.1     0.4    #N/A

Median-Actual                     -0.1     0.3    -0.1     0.3     0.0    #N/A

Historical Comparison:          Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

Median                             0.2     0.4     0.4    -0.3     0.1     0.2

High                               0.6     0.5     0.5     0.1     0.5     0.8

Low                               -0.1     0.1     0.1    -0.6    -0.2    -0.9

Actual result                      0.4     0.6     1.0    -0.2     0.1     0.3

Median-Actual                     -0.2    -0.2    -0.6    -0.1     0.0    -0.1

Capacity Utilization:           Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

Forecast:

Median                            78.4    78.0    78.2    78.2    78.3    78.2

High                              78.7    78.2    78.4    78.5    78.5    78.3

Low                               78.2    77.4    78.1    78.0    78.1    78.0

Actual result                     78.0    77.9    78.0    78.1    78.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                      0.4     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2    #N/A

Historical Comparison:          Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

Median                            78.3    78.1    79.0    77.3    75.5    76.2

High                              78.6    78.2    79.1    77.6    76.0    76.6

Low                               78.0    77.7    78.7    77.0    75.3    75.4

Actual result                     78.3    78.3    79.3    77.5    75.4    76.0

Median-Actual                      0.0    -0.2    -0.3    -0.2     0.1     0.2

                                Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex. GM       9.9     9.9    10.3     9.9    10.1    10.2

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg            0.5    -0.1     0.4     0.2    -0.2    -0.1

Factory Jobs (000's)                28      23      21      22       5      18

Auto Prod Jobs (000's)               1      -7       5      -1       2       0

Mining Jobs (000's)                  9       3       9      -1       7       5

Levels:

ISM Mfg PMI                       57.3    58.7    60.2    58.1    61.3    59.8

ISM Mfg Production                57.2    61.5    62.3    58.5    63.3    63.9

Phila. Fed Index                  23.2    34.4    19.9    25.7    11.9    22.9

Empire State Index                15.8    20.1    25.0    22.6    25.6    19.0

Chicago PMI                       57.6    62.7    64.1    65.5    63.6    60.4

Factory Workweek                  41.0    40.8    41.0    41.0    40.9    40.8

Factory Overtime                   3.6     3.4     3.5     3.5     3.5     3.4

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]