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(M1) Needle Still Points North

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to dip 
modestly to a reading of 58.0 in September after rising to 58.8 in 
August. The impact of Hurricane Harvey could be fully felt in this 
month's data. However, regional conditions data have suggested solid 
growth, as did the flash Markit estimate. Even the Dallas Fed 
manufacturing data released on September 25 indicated stronger growth 
despite the impact of Hurricane Harvey, as respondents noted only a 
modest impact from the storm statewide and a stronger impact in the Gulf 
region. 
     Analysts underestimated the headline ISM index in August, a common 
theme over the last year. Recent September data have tilted toward 
underestimates since 2010. 
Forecast:                Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17
 Median                    56.5    54.4    55.5    56.3    56.6    58.0
 Range High                57.0    55.6    56.8    57.5    56.0    59.0
 Range Low                 55.6    53.8    54.5    55.0    57.5    57.0
Actual result              54.8    54.9    57.8    56.3    58.8    #N/A
 vs median forecast         1.7    -0.5    -2.3     0.0    -2.2    #N/A
Historical comparison:   Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16
 Median                    51.0    49.7    55.0    58.1    50.6    49.8
 Range High                52.0    50.6    57.2    59.0    53.5    50.6
 Range Low                 49.0    49.0    53.0    57.5    49.0    48.5
Actual result              51.6    51.5    56.2    56.6    50.2    51.5
 vs median forecast        -0.6    -1.8    -1.2     1.5     0.4    -1.7
                          Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17
 MNI Chicago                58.3    59.4    65.7    58.9    58.9    65.2
 Phila. Fed Index           22.0    38.8    27.6    19.5    18.9    23.8
 Empire State Index          5.2    -1.0    19.8     9.8    25.2    24.4
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]