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US DATA: GDPNow Lowered To 2.4% For Q3 Tracker On Softer Gross Investment

US DATA
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised down to 2.44% annualized from the 2.9% in the Aug 8 update for the still early days for the Q3 tracker. 
  • It's despite the surprise strength in today’s retail sales report, with downward revisions instead concentrated in gross private domestic investment growth being lowered from 2.8% to 0.0%. 
  • GDP growth is currently seen to have increased 2.8% in Q2, or an average 2.1% in 1H24 after 4.1% in 2H23. 
  • Latest contributions see consumer spending adding a strong 2.0pps vs the 1.6pps in Q2 and average 1.3pps in 1H24 after the 2.15 in 2H23. 
  • The main expected sequential drag relative to Q2 is in changes in inventories, now seen dragging -0.3pps as the volatile category swings from a 0.8pp boost in Q2 prior to which it dragged -0.4pps in Q1. 
Source: Atlanta Fed

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