US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section

presents the key elements behind the median forecasts.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for January

 Wednesday, Feb. 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        

                                                           Actual: 

               Median                                 Jan20  Dec19  Nov19  

ISM NMI          55.1                                    --   54.9   53.9   

     Comments: The Institute for Supply Management's monthly non-manufacturing

index is expected to stay steady at 55.1 in January, signaling continued

expansion in the services sector.

ADP Private Payrolls for January(change in thousands) 

 Wednesday, Feb. 5 at 8:15 a.m. ET                        

                                                           Actual: 

               Median                                 Jan20  Dec19  Nov19

Payrolls        +158k                                    --  +202k    67k   

     Comments: ADP private payrolls is expected to gain a healthy 158,000 in

January, stepping down from December's 202k jump. 

Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $) 

 Wednesday, Feb. 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                            

                                                         Actual: 

               Median                              Dec19   Nov19    Oct19    

Trade Gap     -$48.2b                                --  -$43.1b  -$47.2b 

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to -$48.2

billion in December from $43.1 billion in November. December's monthly advance

economic indicators report showed the goods trade deficit increasing by more

than expected. November saw the end of four straight months of a narrowing trade

deficit, and December is likely to widen the gap once more.

Preliminary Q4 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)

 Thursday, Feb.6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          

                                                           Actual:

                   Median                              4Qp    3Qf    2Qf 

Productivity        +1.6%                               --  -0.2%  +2.5%  

Unit Labor Cost     +1.3%                               --  +2.5%  +0.1%  

     Comments: Non-farm productivity is expected to rise by +1.6% after falling

-0.2% in the third quarter, which was the first decline in nearly four years.

Unit labor cost is expected to increase by +1.3%, which would mark the sixth

straight quarter of increases.

Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)

 Thursday, Feb. 6 at 8:30 a.m. EST                         

                                                           Actual:

                    Median                           Feb01 Jan25  Jan18       

Claims:                215                              --  216k   223k   

     Comments: Jobless claims for the week ending February 1 are expected to

come in at 215,000.

     Nonfarm Payrolls for January(change in thousands) 

 Friday, January 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   

                                                           Actual: 

               Median                                 Jan20  Dec19  Nov19   

Payrolls         160k                                    --   145k   266k   

Private Jobs     150k                                    --   139k   254k   

Jobless Rate     3.5%                                    --   3.5%   3.5%   

Hrly Earnings    0.3%                                    --   0.1%   0.2%   

Avg Wkly Hrs     34.3                                    --   34.3   34.4   

     Comments: U.S. employment growth likely picked up in January to 160k from

December's 145k. Weekly initial jobless claims have fallen toward historic lows

and continue to show a robust labor market. However, excess labor supply is

shrinking as prime-age worker participation returns to pre-recession high and as

slowing labor force growth puts more downside pressure on jobs numbers. Still,

160,000 is comfortably above the "break-even pace" of around 100,000 and should

bolster the decline in the unemployment rate, which should continue at its

half-century low of 3.5%. Average hourly earnings is expected to rise by +0.3%,

accelerating from previous months. 

     Wholesale Trade for December(percent change) 

 Friday, Feb. 7 at 10:00 a.m. ET                          

                                                           Actual: 

               Median                                Dec19  Nov19  Oct19  

Sales           +0.1%                                   --  +1.5%  +0.1%  

     Comments: Wholesale sales for December are expected to increase by +0.1%,

which would make for the third-straight month of growth.

     Consumer Credit for December (dollar change, billions) 

 Friday, Feb. 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                          

                                                           Actual: 

               Median                                Dec19  Nov19   Oct19  

Cons Cred     +$15.0b                                  -- +$12.5b +$18.9b    

     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to rise by $15.0 billion in

December after a $12.5 billion gain in November.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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