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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section
presents the key elements behind the median forecasts.
Empire Manufacturing Index for March (index)
Monday, March 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Mar20 Feb20 Jan20
Index 5.0 -- 12.9 4.8
Comments: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to drop to 5.0, down
from February's 12.9.
February Retail Sales (percent change)
Tuesday, March 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Feb20 Jan20 Dec19
Retail Sales +0.2% -- +0.3% +0.2%
Retail ex mv +0.2% -- +0.3% +0.6%
Retail ex mv+gas +0.4% -- +0.4% +0.5%
Comments: U.S. retail sales and retail sales excluding motor vehicles
likely slowed in February, with markets calling for a 0.2% gain following a
stronger 0.3% increase in January, for each category. Cheaper gas prices in
February should drive down gas station sales, but vehicle sales were
unseasonably strong last month, potentially boosting headline sales, an analyst
at Autotrader told MNI. Sales excluding motor vehicles and gas should rise 0.4%
in February according to market expectations, the same as January. The February
report is likely not an accurate barometer for the full impact of the
coronavirus pandemic, as U.S. public health officials continue to endorse social
distancing, encouraging consumers to avoid large public spaces like shopping
malls.
Industrial Production for February (percent change)
Tuesday, March 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET
Actual:
Median: Feb20 Jan20 Dec19
Industrial Production +0.4% -- -0.3% -0.4%
Capacity Utilization 77.1% -- 76.8% 77.0%
Comments: Industrial production for February is expected to increase +0.4% after
declining for two straight months, while capacity utilization remains nearly
flat at 77.1%.
Business Inventories for January (percent change)
Tuesday, March 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Jan20 Dec19 Nov19
Inventories -0.1% -- +0.1% -0.2%
Comments: Business inventories for January are expected to decrease by -0.1%
after December's +0.1% uptick.
NAHB Home Builder Index for March (index)
Tuesday, March 17 at 10:00 a.m. EST Actual:
Median: Mar20 Feb20 Jan20
Index 75 -- 74 75
Comments: The National Home Builder Index is slated to climb slightly to
75, up slightly from February's reading of 74.
Housing Starts & Building Permits (millions)
Wednesday, February 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Feb20 Jan20 Dec19
Starts 1.500m -- 1.567m 1.626m
Permits 1.495m -- 1.551m 1.420m
Comments: Housing Starts and Building Permits are expected to fall slightly
to 1.500m and 1.495m, respectively.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (index)
Thursday, February 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median: Mar20 Feb20 Jan20
Index 10.0 -- 36.7 17.0
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall
sharply to 10.0 in February, down from 36.7 in February, which was the highest
reading since February 2017.
Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)
Thursday, March 19 at 8:30 a.m. EST Actual:
Median March14 March07 Feb29
Claims 220k -- 211k 215k
Comments: Jobless claims are expected to climb to 220k, above the 4-week moving
average of 214k stated in the latest BLS report. So far, the jobless claims
report has not captured any detectable effect from the covid-19 pandemic or the
recent oil shock.
4th Quarter 2019 Current Account Balance (billions)
Thursday, March 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median 4Q19 3Q19 Q219
Balance -$108.8b -- -$124.1b -$125.2b
Comments: The current account balance for the fourth quarter of 2019 is expected
to move to -$108.8b, up from the third quarter's reading of -$124.1b.
February Existing Home Sales (millions)
Friday, March 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET
Actual:
Median: Feb20 Jan20 Dec19
Existing Home Sales -- -- 5.46m 5.53m
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.