US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

Trade in Goods and Services (deficit, billions) 

 Tuesday, May 5 at 8:30am (ET)                            

                                                          Actual 

               Median                             Mar20    Feb20    Jan20       

Trade Gap     -$44.2b                                --  -$39.9b  -$45.5b   

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to increase to -$44.2

billion in March from -$39.9 billion in February.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

 Tuesday, May 5 at 10:00am (ET)                        

                                                           Actual 

               Median                                Apr20  Mar20  Feb20     

ISM NMI          37.8                                   --   52.5   57.3     

     Comments: The ISM Non-manufacturing index is expected to fall to 37.8,

lurching into contractionary territory for the first time since December 2009.

The April reading is expected to mark the index's lowest level since November

2008 when it also registered at 37.8.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, May 7 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                             Actual

                   Median                              May02  Apr25  Apr18      

Claims             3.000m                                 -- 3.839m 4.427m      

     Comments: - U.S. weekly jobless claims filed through May 2 are expected to

reach 3 million after rising to 3.8 million last week in what analysts say will

be a gradual slowdown. Weekly increases in initial claims filings are likely

past the peak and shouldn't come near the 6.6 million initial claims filed after

the first wave of coronavirus-related business closures, according to analysts.

Still, both initial and continuing claims will remain at highly elevated levels

in the millions for at least several more weeks, smashing records dating back to

1967.

Preliminary Q1 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)

 Thursday, May 7 at 8:30am (ET)                          

                                                           Actual

                   Median                             1Q(p)  4Q(f)   3Q(f) 

Productivity        -5.5%                               --   +1.2%  -0.3%  

Unit Labor Cost     +4.3%                               --   +0.9%  +0.2%  

     Comments: Final non-farm productivity is expected to drop by -5.5% in its

preliminary estimate after rising +1.2% in the fourth quarter. Unit labor cost

is expected to increase by +4.3% and would mark the seventh straight quarter of

increases.

Consumer Credit for (dollar change, billions) 

 Thursday, May 7 at 3:00pm (ET)                          

                                                           Actual

               Median                               Mar20   Feb20   Jan20       

Cons Cred     +$15.0b                                  -- +$22.3b +$12.1b      

     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to rise by $15.0 billion in March

after increasing by $22.3 billion in February.

Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands and millions) 

 Friday, May 8 at 8:30am (ET)                                 Actual 

                 Median                                 Apr20  Mar20  Feb20     

Payrolls       -21.250m                                    --  -701k  +275k     

Private Jobs   -21.520m                                    --  -713k  +242k     

Jobless Rate        16%                                    --   4.4%   3.5%     

Hrly Earnings     +0.4%                                    --  +0.4%  +0.3%    

Avg Wkly Hrs       33.6                                    --   34.2   34.4    

     Comments: The labor market will show unprecedented weakness in figures due

Friday, reflecting the crippling effect of the coronavirus on U.S. employment in

April. Markets are predicting payrolls fell by -21.250 million in April

following a -701,000 decline in March that was the first decline in payrolls

growth in nearly 10 years. Nearly 27 million initial jobless claims were filed

between mid-March and mid-April, when the report was generated. The unemployment

rate is widely expected to land between 15%-20% in the Bureau of Labor

Statistics report, but experts say that still understates the true jobless rate

as many unemployed workers are not currently looking for a new job and have

therefore exited the workforce under BLS standards. That would mean the labor

force participation rate, which dipped slightly to 62.7% in the March report,

should show considerable weakness Friday.

Wholesale Trade (percent change) 

 Friday, May 8 at 10:00am (ET)                             

                                                           Actual 

               Median                                Mar20  Feb20 Jan20    

Sales           -3.0%                                   --  -0.8% +1.3% 

     Comments: U.S. wholesale trade is expected to have fallen by -3.0% m/m in

March.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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