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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the
key elements behind the median forecasts.
Consumer Price Index (percent change)
Tuesday, May 12 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
CPI -0.7% -- -0.4% +0.1%
CPI Core -0.2% -- -0.1% +0.2%
Comments: U.S. consumer inflation likely tumbled in April on plummeting gas
prices, with markets expecting a -0.7% decline following a -0.4% drop in March.
Core CPI should fall -0.2% after decreasing -0.1% in March. Prices of
demand-sensitive goods like airfares and hotel stays, hardest hit by the
coronavirus pandemic, likely fell further in April as consumers continued to
stay home and many businesses temporarily closed their doors.
Treasury Statement (USD billions)
Tuesday, May 12 at 2:00pm (ET)
Actual
Median Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Treasury Budget -- -- -$119.1B -$235.3B
Comments: No BBG estimate is available at this time.
Producer Price Index (percent change)
Wednesday, May 13 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median: Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
PPI -0.5% -- -0.2% -0.6%
Core PPI flat -- +0.2% -0.3%
Core PPI ex trade -0.3% -- -0.2% -0.1%
Comments: Month-over-month final demand PPI is expected to shrink by -0.5%
in what would mark the third straight month of declines. Core PPI is expected to
remain flat while core PPI ex trade should drop -0.3%, marking another third
straight month of declines.
Initial Jobless Claims (millions)
Thursday, May 14 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median May09 May02 Apr25
Claims 3.000m -- 3.169m 3.846m
Comments: Initial jobless claims are expected to fall to 3.000 million with
some analysts saying the U.S. passed its initial peak back in late March 2020.
Import/Export Prices (percent change)
Thursday, May 14 at 8:30am (ET) Actual
Median: Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Import Price Index -3.2% -- -2.3% -0.7%
Export Price Index -2.2% -- -1.6% -1.1%
Comments: The import price index is expected to decrease -3.2%, while the export
price index is expected to fall by -2.2%. April should mark the third straight
month of decreases for both indexes.
Retail Sales (percent change)
Friday, May 15 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Retail Sales -11.0% -- -8.4% -0.4%
Retail ex mv -- -- -4.5% -0.4%
Retail ex mv+gas -6.0% -- -2.8% -0.2%
Comments: U.S. retail sales likely fell sharply in April, with preliminary
estimates seeing a -11.0% drop following a -8.4% decrease in March that was the
largest decline on record. Many retailers were closed through April and falling
gas prices will keep monthly gas station sales low, holding down headlines
sales. Excluding motor vehicle and gas station sales, retail sales should fall
-6.0%.
Empire Manufacturing Index (index)
Friday, May 15 at 8:30 am ET Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Index -60.0 -- -78.2 -21.5
Comments: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to retreat to -60.0,
up from -78.2, the lowest reading ever recorded on the index.
Industrial Production (percent change)
Friday, May 15 at 9:15am (ET)
Actual
Median Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Industrial Production -11.4% -- -5.4% +0.5%
Capacity Utilization 64.1% -- 72.7% 77.0%
Comments: Industrial production for March is expected to fall -11.4%, the
biggest m/m drop since August 2009 when it fell -11.6%. Capacity utilization is
expected to decline to 64.1%, which would mark the lowest reading in the history
of the measure.
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary)
Friday, May 15 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median May(p) Apr20 Mar20
Consumer Sent 68.5 -- 71.8 89.1
Comments: The Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to fall to 68.5 from
April's 71.8 reading. The fall in consumer sentiment would mark the lowest
reading since November 2011, when the index registered at 63.7.
Business Inventories (percent change)
Friday, May 15 at 10:00am (ET) Actual
Median: Mar20 Feb20 Jan20
Inventories -0.4% -- -0.4% -0.3%
Comments: Business inventories for March are expected to decrease by -0.4% after
February's -0.4%, marking the fifth month of declining or flat growth.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.