US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

Consumer Price Index (percent change)

 Tuesday, May 12 at 8:30am (ET)                        

                                                        Actual

                   Median                         Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    

CPI                 -0.8%                            --  -0.4%  +0.1%  

CPI Core            -0.2%                            --  -0.1%  +0.2%  

Comments: U.S. consumer inflation likely tumbled in April on plummeting gas

prices, with markets expecting a -0.8% decline following a -0.4% drop in March.

Core CPI should fall -0.2% after decreasing -0.1% in March. Prices of

demand-sensitive goods like airfares and hotel stays, hardest hit by the

coronavirus pandemic, likely fell further in April as consumers continued to

stay home and many businesses temporarily closed their doors.

Treasury Statement (USD billions)

 Tuesday, May 12 at 2:00pm (ET)                        

                                                        Actual

                   Median                      Apr20     Mar20     Feb20        

Treasury Budget  -$737.0B                         --  -$119.1B  -$235.3B

Comments: The budget deficit is expected to have increased by -$737.0 billion in

April.

Producer Price Index (percent change) 

 Wednesday, May 13 at 8:30am (ET)                      

                                                        Actual

                  Median:                         Apr20  Mar20  Feb20     

PPI                -0.5%                             --  -0.2%  -0.6%     

Core PPI           -0.1%                             --  +0.2%  -0.3%     

Core PPI ex trade  -0.1%                             --  -0.2%  -0.1%     

     Comments: Month-over-month final demand PPI is expected to shrink by -0.5%

in what would mark the third straight month of declines. Core PPI and core PPI

excluding trade are both, respectively, expected to decline by -0.1%

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, May 14 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                            Actual

                   Median                            May09   May02   Apr25      

Claims              2.50m                               --  3.169m  3.846m      

     Comments: Initial jobless claims are expected to fall to 2.50 million with

some analysts saying the U.S. passed its initial peak back in late March 2020. 

Import/Export Prices (percent change)

 Thursday, May 14 at 8:30am (ET)                           Actual

                    Median:                          Apr20  Mar20  Feb20        

Import Price Index   -3.2%                              --  -2.3%  -0.7%      

Export Price Index   -2.3%                              --  -1.6%  -1.1%   

Comments: The import price index is expected to decrease -3.2%, while the export

price index is expected to fall by -2.3%. April should mark the third straight

month of decreases for both indexes.

Retail Sales (percent change)

 Friday, May 15 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                     Actual                     

                  Median                       Apr20  Mar20  Feb20     

Retail Sales      -11.5%                          --  -8.4%  -0.4%   

Retail ex mv       -8.4%                          --  -4.5%  -0.4%    

Retail ex mv+gas   -6.0%                          --  -2.8%  -0.2%     

     Comments: U.S. retail sales likely fell sharply in April, with preliminary

estimates seeing a -11.5% drop following a -8.4% decrease in March that was the

largest decline on record. Many retailers were closed through April and falling

gas prices will keep monthly gas station sales low, holding down headlines

sales. Excluding motor vehicle and gas station sales, retail sales should fall

-6.0%.

Empire Manufacturing Index (index)

 Friday, May 15 at 8:30 am ET                          Actual        

                     Median                      May20  Apr20  Mar20      

Index                 -60.0                         --  -78.2  -21.5      

     Comments: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to retreat to -60.0,

up from -78.2, the lowest reading ever recorded on the index.

Industrial Production (percent change)

 Friday, May 15 at 9:15am (ET)                         

                                                            Actual        

                          Median                      Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    

Industrial Production     -12.0%                         --  -5.4%  +0.5%   

Capacity Utilization       63.9%                         --  72.7%  77.0%  

Comments: Industrial production for March is expected to fall -12.0%, the

biggest m/m drop since July 2009 when it fell -13.9%. Capacity utilization is

expected to decline to 63.9%, which would mark the lowest reading in the history

of the measure.

University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary)

 Friday, May 15 at 10:00am (ET)                                

                                                               Actual

                          Median                         May(p) Apr20  Mar20    

Consumer Sent               68.0                            --   71.8   89.1 

Comments: The Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to fall to 68.0 from

April's 71.8 reading. The fall in consumer sentiment would mark the lowest

reading since November 2011, when the index registered at 63.7.

Business Inventories (percent change)

 Friday, May 15 at 10:00am (ET)                             Actual

                 Median:                              Mar20  Feb20  Jan20     

Inventories       -0.2%                                  --  -0.4%  -0.3%   

Comments: Business inventories for March are expected to decrease by -0.2% after

February's -0.4% drop, marking the fifth straight month of declining or flat

growth.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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