US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                           Actual

                   Median                            May30  May23  May16       

Claims             1.843m                               -- 2.123m 2.446m     

     Comments: The jobless claims surge is slowly subsiding, but it remains at

record-high levels with next week's new claims expected to reach 1.843 million.

In the wake of weakened consumer demand, lockdowns, and continued social

distancing, close to 40 million claims have already been filed. New hires in

mid-May could alleviate some of the pressure on new jobless claims as some

states began to relax social-distancing measures during that period.

Trade in Goods and Services (deficit, billions) 

 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                            

                                                           Actual 

               Median                              Apr20    Mar20    Feb20      

Trade Gap     -$49.2b                                 --  -$44.4b  -$39.8b     

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to increase to -$49.2

billion in April from -$44.4 billion in March. The advance report showed the

goods trade gap grew to -$69.7 billion in April after reaching a revised March

reading of -$65.0 billion, outpacing market expectations of a -$65.0 billion

gap. The growing advance goods deficit was driven by a -25.2% m/m drop in

exports, bolstered by manufacturing downtime, alongside a -14.3% m/m decline in

imports given continued, multi-week lags in international shipping.  

Final Q4 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)

 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                          

                                                           Actual

                   Median                             1Q(f)  4Q(f)   3Q(f) 

Productivity        -2.7%                              --   +1.2%  -0.3%  

Unit Labor Cost     +5.0%                              --   +0.9%  +0.2%  

     Comments: Final non-farm productivity is expected to drop -0.2 points to

-2.7% alongside a +5.0% increase in unit labor cost. The preliminary report

released in early May was the largest quarterly drop in productivity since the

4Q 2015 when output per hour fell -2.9%. The preliminary report also showed unit

labor costs rising at their highest rate since 1Q 2019 when they increased by

+5.7%. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands and millions) 

 Friday, June 5 at 8:30am (ET)                                

                                                            Actual 

                 Median                             May20    Apr20    Mar20     

Payrolls        -8.000m                                -- -20.500m  -0.881m     

Private Jobs    -7.500m                                -- -19.520m  -0.853m     

Jobless Rate      19.5%                                --    14.7%     4.4% 

Avg Hrly Earnings  1.0%                                --    +4.7%    +0.5%    

Avg Wkly Hrs       34.3                                --     34.2     34.1    

     Comments: Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to have plummeted by -8.000

million in May, still an improvement from the record-shattering 20.5 million

jobs lost in April. Many states reopened in late April and early May, putting

many Americans back to work for the first time in more than a month, but initial

unemployment claims have remained highly elevated, nearing 12 million during the

reference period for Friday's report. The unemployment rate in May is expected

to reach 19.5%, rivaling Great Depression-era joblessness. The labor force

participation rate should rise as social distancing measures are rolled back. 

Consumer Credit for (dollar change, billions) 

 Friday, June 5 at 3:00pm (ET)                          

                                                             Actual

               Median                                Apr20    Mar20   Feb20     

Cons Cred   -$20.000b                                   --  -$12.0b +$22.3b     

     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to fall by -$20.000 billion in

April after falling by -$12.0 billion in March. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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