US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. 

MNI Chicago PMI 

 Tuesday, June 30 at 9:45am (ET)

     The MNI Chicago PMI for June is expected to rebound to 44.0 from May's 32.3

reading, which was the lowest level since March 1982, as business confidence

cooled further amid the Covid-19 crisis.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

 Tuesday, June 30 at 10:00am (ET)

U.S. consumer sentiment likely added to gains in May to reach 90.5 this month

from 86.6. After declining sharply to 85.7 in April, the index showed signs of

stabilizing last month as consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and

labor market conditions improved. 

ISM Manufacturing Index (index)

 Wednesday, July 1 at 10:00am (ET)

     The ISM manufacturing index is expected to climb to 49.5 in June from 45.4

in May as factories continued to reopen. The Markit flash PMI rebounded nearly

10 points to 49.6 and regional surveys have indicated improving factory activity

as well. 

Construction Spending (percentage change)

 Wednesday, July 1 at 10:00am (ET)

     Construction spending for May is expected to rise +0.9% after falling -2.9%

in April.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, July 2 at 8:30am (ET)                     

     Claims filed through June 27 should fall to 1.336 million after reaching

1.48 million in the week ending June 20. The pace of initial claims has slowed

in recent weeks, but by less than expected, and new clusters of Covid-19

infections have appeared as states continue to reopen, which could lengthen a

labor market recovery.

Trade in Goods and Services (deficit, billions) 

 Thursday, July 2 at 8:30am (ET)                            

     The trade deficit is expected to increase to -USD53.0 billion in May from

-USD49.4 billion in April. The advance report showed the goods gap widening to

USD74.3 billion as imports declined by less than expected. Imports of industrial

supplies and consumer goods rose in May, an indication of the recovery. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands and millions) 

 Thursday, July 2 at 8:30am (ET)                                

                                                            Actual 

                 Median                             Jun20    May20    Apr20     

Payrolls         3.000m                                --   2.509m -20.687m

Private Jobs     2.519m                                --   3.094m -19.724m

Jobless Rate      12.4%                                --    13.3%    14.7% 

Avg Hrly Earnings -0.8%                                --    -1.0%    +4.7%    

Avg Wkly Hrs       34.5                                --     34.7     34.2    

     The U.S. labor market should continue to show signs of improvement through

June, with markets expecting nonfarm payrolls to increase by 3.0 million,

slightly stronger than May's 2.5 million gain as employers continue to reverse

the record-setting -20.5 million decline in April.

     Claims data have suggested that layoffs are slowing. The Census Bureau's

weekly Small Business Pulse Survey showed 10.2% of businesses increased workers

through the June survey week compared to 7.9% in May, though 11.2% of businesses

shrank their workforce.

Factory Orders (percent change) 

 Thursday, July 2 at 10:00am (ET)   

     New factory orders are expected to rise +7.9% in May, reversing some of

April's -13.0% drop.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com

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