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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 31/17:06 EST Jul 31
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.       
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for July (mln units, saar)                 
 Tuesday, August 1                                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul17  Jun17  May17
 Dom Sales     13.3m       13.1m to 13.4m               --  12.7m  12.7m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to accelerate to
a 13.3 million SAAR in July after holding steady in June at 12.7        
million. Seasonal adjustment factors are usually a smaller subtraction  
to unadjusted sales in July than in June.                               
Personal Income for June (percent change)                               
 Tuesday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:    
              Median        Range                    Jun17  May17  Apr17
 Income        +0.4%     +0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +0.3%
 Spending      +0.1%      Flat to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%
 Core Prices   +0.1%      Flat to +0.1%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to post a 0.4% increase in   
June, as payrolls rose by 222,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5    
hours, and rose by 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by only 
0.1%, as retail sales fell 0.2% in the month and were still down 0.2%   
excluding a 0.1% rise in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also   
ex. gas) were down 0.1% in the month, while sales excluding autos, gas, 
building materials and food services fell 0.1%, indicating underlying   
weakness. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.1% increase  
in June, keeping the y/y measure well below 2%. Annual revisions will be
included with the data.                                                 
ISM Manufacturing Index for July                                        
 Tuesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:     
              Median       Range                     Jul17  Jun17  May17
 Mfg ISM        56.3    55.0 to 57.5                    --   57.8   54.9
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to slip back to a
reading of 56.3 in July after a solid gain to 57.8 in June. Regional    
conditions data have been mixed, with the Empire, Kansas City and       
Philadelphia Fed readings declining, but the Richmond Fed index up. The 
flash reading for the July Markit manufacturing survey was up from June.
Construction Spending for June (percent change)                         
 Tuesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
                Median         Range                 Jun17  May17  Apr17
 Construction    +0.4%     -0.8% to +0.6%              --   Flat   -0.7%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in June.  
Housing starts surged 8.3% in the month after three straight declines,  
suggesting private residential building could rebound after dip in May. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 29 week                                  
 Thursday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:      
                 Median        Range                 Jul29  Jul22  Jul15
 Weekly Claims     240k    235k to 247k                 --   244k   234k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 4,000 to 240,000 in the July 29 week after a 10,000 increase in the  
previous week. The four-week moving average, which held steady in the   
July 22 week, would decline by 2,500 in the coming week as the 250,000  
level in the July 1 week drops out of the drops out of the calculation, 
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Auto   
plant retooling shutdowns frequently occur in early-July. While         
automakers have recently moved to shutdowns in other parts of the year, 
seasonal factors still look for a boost in unadjusted claims early in   
the month, followed by declines at the end of the month.                
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July                                    
 Thursday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Jul17  Jun17  May17
 ISM NMI        56.9     55.0 to 57.1                   --   57.4   56.9
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to 
a reading of 56.9 in July after rising to 57.4 in June. The flash Markit
Services estimate held steady at 54.2 in July.                          
Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                
 Thursday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
             Median           Range                  Jun17  May17  Apr17
 New Orders   +3.0%      +2.4% to +3.5%                 --  -0.8%  -0.3%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise 3.0% in June. Durable
goods orders surged 6.5% in the month on a spike in aircraft orders,    
while nondurables orders are expected to post a further decline due to  
soft energy prices.                                                     
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, August 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:      
               Median         Range                  Jul17  Jun17  May17
 Payrolls       +181k     +170k to +220k                --  +222k  +152k
 Private Job    +185k     +165k to +205k                --  +187k  +159k
 Jobless Rate    4.3%      4.3% to 4.4%                 --   4.4%   4.3%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%     +0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.1%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5      34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 181,000 in July 
after a stronger-than-expected 222,000 gain in June. The unemployment   
rate is expected to fall back to 4.3% after rebounding to 4.4% in June. 
Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in the      
previous month. Due to a large 0.4% rise in hourly earnings in July     
2016, the year/year gain for July 2017 is likely to be trimmed. The     
average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5.                    
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               
 Friday, August 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median           Range               Jun17   May17   Apr17
 Trade Gap   -$44.1b     -$44.9b to -$43.9b           -- -$46.5b -$47.6b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to     
$44.1 billion in June. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade   
gap narrowed to $63.9 billion in June, with exports up 1.4% and imports 
down 0.4%.                                                              
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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