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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Consumer Credit for June (dollar change, billions)
Monday, August 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun17 May17 Apr17
Cons Cred +$14.8 +$14.0 to +16.0b -- +$18.4b +$12.9b
Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.8 billion in
June after an $18.4 billion rise in May. Retail sales fell 0.2%, both
including and excluding motor vehicle sales.
Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)
Wednesday, August 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 2Q17p 1Q17 4Q16
Productivity +1.0% +0.5% to +1.3% -- Flat +1.8%
Unit Labor Costs +0.9% +0.5% to +1.4% -- +2.2% -4.6%
Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 1.0% in the
second quarter, above the flat reading in the first quarter as the
output component will lift the headline figure. Unit labor costs are
expected to rise only 0.9% in the second quarter after a 2.2% rise in
first quarter, taking into account the faster productivity growth.
Weekly Jobless Claims for August 5 week
Thursday, August 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug05 Jul29 Jul22
Weekly Claims 241k 237k to 243k -- 240k 245k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 1,000 to 241,000 in the August 5 week after a 5,000 decrease in the
previous week. The four-week moving average, which fell by 2,500 in the
July 29 week, would decline by 1,750 in the coming week as the 248,000
level in the July 8 week drops out of the drops out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Producer Price Index for July (percent change)
Thursday, August 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul17 Jun17 May17
Final Demand +0.2% Flat to +0.3% -- +0.1% Flat
Ex Food,Energy +0.2% +0.2% to +0.3% -- +0.1% +0.3%
Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July after a
small 0.1% rise in June. Food prices are expected to slow after a 0.6%
gain in June, but energy prices are forecast to rebound after a 0.5%
decline in the previous month on a return to more seasonable
temperatures. Likewise, PPI excluding food and energy is forecast to
rise 0.2% after a modest 0.1% gain in June.
Treasury Statement for July ($ billions)
Thursday, August 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul17 Jun17 Jul16
Balance -$76.0b -$76.0b to -$76.0b -- -$90.2b -$112.8b
Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $76.0 billion
budget deficit in July, compared with a $112.8 billion deficit in July
2016. Because July 1 was a Saturday, some July outlays shifted into
June, which will reduce July outlays. As a result, the comparison with
July 2016, which did not have the same calendar issue, will be less
meaningful.
Consumer Price Index for July (percent change)
Friday, August 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul17 Jun17 May17
CPI +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% -- Flat -0.1%
CPI Core +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% -- +0.1% +0.1%
Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% in July following a flat
reading in June. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound modestly after
another sharp decline in June, as temperatures across the country picked
up to lift electricity usage. Food prices are expected to remain tame
after a flat June reading. The core CPI is also forecast to rise 0.2%
following a third straight 0.1% increase in June, but vehicle and
apparel prices were again cited as drags on the core number that prevent
it from breaking out of its recent trend.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.