US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.           

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 12 week                                

 Thursday, August 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Aug12  Aug05  Jul29

 Weekly Claims     240k     235k to 245k                --   244k   241k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 4,000 to 240,000 in the August 12 employment survey week after a     

3,000 increase in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 234,000  

in the July 15 employment survey week. The four-week moving average,    

which has declined in the last two weeks, would rise by 1,500 in the    

coming week as the 234,000 level in the July 15 week drops out of the   

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)         

 Thursday, August 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:      

             Median         Range                    Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Phila Fed     19.2     10.0 to 25.0                    --   19.5   27.6

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to slide very     

modestly to a reading of 19.2 in August following the declines in June  

and July.                                                               

Industrial Production for July (percent change)                         

 Thursday, August 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Ind Prod      +0.3%    +0.1% to +0.5%                  --  +0.4%  +0.1%

 Cap Util      76.7%    76.6% to 76.9%                  --  76.6%  76.4%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in July   

after a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 16,000

in July, while auto production jobs up 2,000 and the factory workweek   

was steady at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index fell to 60.6 in July 

from 62.4 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to    

rebound in the month after a flat June reading, while mining production 

is forecast to post another increase. Capacity utilization is forecast  

to rise modestly to 76.7% from 76.6% in June.                           

Leading Indicators for July (percent change)                            

 Thursday, August 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Leading Index    +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.6%  +0.2%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

only 0.3% in July after jumping by 0.6% in June. The rate spread should 

be a significant positive factor this month, with other positive        

contributions from falling jobless claims, higher stock prices, and a   

rise in consumer expectations.                                          

University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)                  

 Friday, August 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Aug17p  Jul17  Jun17

 Consumer Sent    94.0     93.0 to 96.0                 --   93.4   95.1

     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to

move up to 94.0 in early-August from 93.4 in July.                      

                    ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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