Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 2/16:06 EST Oct 2
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for September (mln units, saar)
Tuesday, October 2 Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Dom Sales 13.7m 13.6m to 13.8m -- 12.3m 12.9m
Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to rebound
sharply in September to 13.7 million after falling in August to 12.3
million. Seasonal adjustment factors will add to unadjusted sales in
September after subtracting in August.
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for September
Wednesday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
ISM NMI 55.4 53.0 to 57.0 -- 55.3 53.9
Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to tick up
modestly to a reading of 55.4 in September after a rise to 55.3 in
August. Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Dallas
Services index down and the Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index up. The
flash Markit services index slipped to 55.1 in the month from 56.0 in
August.
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 30 week
Thursday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep30 Sep23 Sep16
Weekly Claims 266k 260k to 300k -- 272k 260k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 6,000 to 266,000 in the September 30 week after a 12,000 increase in
the previous week. Initial and continuing filings in hurricane-impact
regions should begin to show any back-logged claims in areas where
filing could not occur in previous weeks. The four-week moving average
would fall by 8,000 in the coming week as the initial hurricane-impacted
298,000 level in the September 2 week drops out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)
Thursday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug17 Jul17 Jun17
Trade Gap -$42.6b -$43.5b to -$41.5b -- -$43.7b -$43.5b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to
$42.6 billion in August. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade
gap narrowed to $62.9 billion in August, with exports up 0.2% and
imports down 0.3%.
Factory Orders for August (percent change)
Thursday, October 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug17 Jul17 Jun17
New Orders +0.9% +0.8% to +1.1% -- -3.3% +3.2%
Ex Transport -- -- -- +0.5% +0.1%
Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.9% in August.
Durable goods orders rose 1.7% in the month on a rebound in aircraft
orders, while nondurables orders are expected to see pickup from higher
energy prices. The impact of Hurricane Harvey should be seen in orders
and shipments. Factory orders are expected to post a modest gain
excluding the transportation rebound. Durable orders excluding
transportation were up 0.2% in the advance estimate.
Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)
Friday, October 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Payrolls +73k -25k to +125k -- +156k +189k
Private Job +72k Flat to +125k -- +165k +202k
Jobless Rate 4.4% 4.3% to 4.5% -- 4.4% 4.3%
Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% -- +0.1% +0.3%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.4 34.3 to 34.4 -- 34.4 34.5
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by only 73,000 in
September after August's disappointing 156,000 gain. The impact of
Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma is clearly expected to show up in
this month's data, adding downside risk. The unemployment rate is
expected to hold steady at 4.4%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise
0.3% after a 0.1% gain in the previous month. The average workweek is
expected to stay at 34.4 hours, with a downside risk due to the
hurricanes.
Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)
Friday, October 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug17 Jul17 Jun17
Cons Cred +$16.0b +$14.0b to +$16.0b -- +$18.5b +$11.8b
Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by 16.0 billion in
August after an $18.5 billion rise in July. Retail sales were down 0.2%
and were up 0.2% excluding a 1.6% plunge in motor vehicle sales.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
