-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Employment Cost Index for Third Quarter (percent change)
Tuesday, October 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 3Q17 2Q17 1Q17
ECI +0.7% +0.6% to +0.8% -- +0.5% +0.8%
Comments: The ECI is expected to rise by 0.7% in the third quarter
after a 0.5% gain in the second quarter. Analysts will watch the
year/year rate closely to see if it moved off the 2.4% rate seen in the
previous two quarters.
MNI Chicago Report for October (index)
Tuesday, October 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
MNI Chicago 62.0 58.0 to 63.3 -- 65.2 58.9
Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slide back to a
reading of 62.0 in October after rising sharply to 65.2 in September.
Other regional data already released, however, suggest that growth
accelerated in those areas.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for October (index)
Tuesday, October 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Confidence 121.0 119.5 to 123.0 -- 119.8 120.4
Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to rebound
to a reading of 121.0 in October after a small dip to 119.8 in
September. The Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 100.7 in October from
95.1 in the previous month.
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for October (mln units, saar)
Wednesday, November 1 Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Dom Sales 13.7m 13.7m to 13.7m -- 14.2m 12.3m
Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to decline to
13.7m in October after a sharp September rebound. Seasonal adjustment
factors will add even more substantially to unadjusted sales in October
than they did in September, but the payback in unadjusted sales will
likely offset any help that the seasonal factors provide.
ISM Manufacturing Index for October
Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Mfg ISM 59.5 58.0 to 61.0 -- 60.8 58.8
Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a
reading of 59.5 in October after rising to a recent peak of 60.8 in
September despite the hurricanes that month. Regional conditions have
suggested stronger growth
Construction Spending for September (percent change)
Wednesday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Construction Flat -0.6% to +0.5% -- +0.5% -1.2%
Comments: Construction spending is expected to hold steady in
September, though the hurricanes present a short-term downside risk.
Housing starts fell 4.7% in the month, suggesting private residential
building could be weak.
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 28 week
Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct28 Oct21 Oct14
Weekly Claims 235k 230k to 240k -- 233k 223k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 2,000 to 235,000 in the October 28 week after a 10,000 increase in
the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 5,750 in
the coming week as the 258,000 level in the September 30 week, the last
of the true hurricane-impacted weeks, drops out of the calculation,
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)
Thursday, November 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 3Q17p 2Q17 1Q17
Productivity +2.9% +1.6% to +3.5% -- +1.5% +0.1%
Unit Labor Costs +0.6% Flat to +2.5% -- +0.2% +4.8%
Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.9% in the
third quarter after a 1.5% gain in the previous quarter, as output
growth was close to steady, but hours worked growth slowed. Unit labor
costs are expected to rise by 0.6% following a modest 0.2% gain in the
second quarter.
Nonfarm Payrolls for October (change in thousands)
Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Payrolls 315k +200k to +350k -- -33k +169k
Private Job 311k +195k to +340k -- -40k +164k
Jobless Rate 4.2% 4.2% to 4.4% -- 4.2% 4.4%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% Flat to +0.3% -- +0.5% +0.2%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.4 34.4 to 34.5 -- 34.4 34.4
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 315,000 in
October after September's hurricane-impacted 33,000 decline, while the
unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings
are forecast to rise by only 0.2% after a 0.5% surge in the previous
month, but the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours for
the fourth straight month.
Trade in Goods and Services for September (deficit, billion $)
Friday, November 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Trade Gap -$43.5b -$44.0b to -$43.0b -- -$42.4b -$43.6b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $43.5
billion in September. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap
widened to $64.1 billion, with exports up 0.7% and imports up 0.9%
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for October
Friday, November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
ISM NMI 58.6 57.0 to 59.5 -- 59.8 55.3
Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a
reading of 58.6 in October after another increase to 59.8 in September.
The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell slightly to 32.2, but
remained strong, while the flash Markit services index ticked up to 55.9
in the month from 55.3 in September.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.