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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts. 
Producer Price Index for October (percent change)                       
 Tuesday, November 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Final Demand     +0.1%     Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.4%  +0.2%
 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%               --  +0.4%  +0.1%
     Comments:  Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.1% in October    
after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Energy prices are expected 
to decline after solid gains in the previous two months, while food     
prices are expected to be roughly flat. Excluding food and energy       
prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4%    
increase in the previous month that was led by a 0.8% jump in trade     
services prices.                                                        
Retail and Food Sales for October (percent change)                      
 Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Retail Sales    Flat     -0.3% to +0.4%                --  +1.6%  -0.1%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.2%     -0.1% to +0.4%                --  +1.0%  +0.5%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to hold steady in October after
a sharp rebound in September. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle
sales slowed in October after a surge in September, while AAA reported  
that gasoline prices fell back in mid-October from one month earlier.   
However, building material sales should remain strong as rebuilding from
the storms continued. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% excluding  
motor vehicles after September's 1.0% gain.                             
Consumer Price Index for October (percent change)                       
 Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 CPI           +0.1%      Flat to +0.2%                 --  +0.5%  +0.4%
 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%
     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise only 0.1% in October         
following a 0.5% energy-related rise in September. Analysts expect      
energy prices to decline after September's 6.1% surge. The core CPI is  
forecast to rise 0.2% following an on-trend 0.1% increase in September. 
Empire State Index for November (diffusion index)                       
 Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
 Empire Index      26.0      20.0 to 26.6               --   30.2   24.4
      Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slow to a         
reading of 26.0 in November from 30.2 in October.                       
Business Inventories for September (percent change)                     
 Wednesday, November 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Inventories   +0.1%       Flat to +0.4%                --  +0.7%  +0.3%
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.1% in        
September. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.7% in the  
month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.3% and the advance report     
pointed to a 1.0% decline for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI
calculation looks for a flat reading for business inventories, so the   
median forecast implies analysts expect retail inventories to be revised
higher. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.8% and wholesale sales
surged by 1.3%, while retail trade sales jumped 1.7% in the advance     
retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 1.2% increase in    
business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales      
number.                                                                 
Weekly Jobless Claims for November 11 week                              
 Thursday, November 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
                  Median         Range               Nov11  Nov04  Oct28
 Weekly Claims      235k     225k to 249k               --   239k   229k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 4,000 to 235,000 in the November 11 week after a 10,000 increase in  
the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by 3,000 in  
the coming week as the 223,000 level in the October 14 week drops out of
the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no  
revisions.                                                              
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)       
 Thursday, November 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
             Median         Range                    Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
 Phila Fed     25.0       20.0 to 25.7                  --   27.9   23.8
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to decline to a   
reading of 25.0 in November following a further gain in October to 27.9.
Industrial Production for October (percent change)                      
 Thursday, November 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Ind Prod      +0.5%      +0.3% to +1.0%                --  +0.3%  -0.7%
 Cap Util      76.3%      76.2% to 76.9%                --  76.0%  75.8%
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% in October
after a 0.3% rebound in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by    
24,000 in October, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000 and the     
factory workweek was rose to 41.0 hours from 40.8 hours in September.   
The ISM production index fell to 61.0 in the current month from 62.2 in 
the previous month, but remained strong. Utilities production is        
expected to rise modestly in the month after a 1.5% September rebound,  
while mining production is forecast to slip after posting a 0.4% gain.  
Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.3% from 76.0% in         
September.                                                              
Housing Starts for October (annual rate, million)                       
 Friday, November 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Oct17  Sep17  Aug17
 Starts    1.190m        1.130m to 1.220m               -- 1.127m 1.183m
     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        
expected to accelerate to a 1.176 million annual rate in October after a
further decline in September. The NAHB index rebounded in October, a    
positive for the housing starts data.                                   
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

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