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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Producer Price Index for October (percent change)
Tuesday, November 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Final Demand +0.1% Flat to +0.3% -- +0.4% +0.2%
Ex Food,Energy +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% -- +0.4% +0.1%
Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.1% in October
after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Energy prices are expected
to decline after solid gains in the previous two months, while food
prices are expected to be roughly flat. Excluding food and energy
prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4%
increase in the previous month that was led by a 0.8% jump in trade
services prices.
Retail and Food Sales for October (percent change)
Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Retail Sales Flat -0.3% to +0.4% -- +1.6% -0.1%
Ex-Mtr Veh +0.2% -0.1% to +0.4% -- +1.0% +0.5%
Comments: Retail sales are forecast to hold steady in October after
a sharp rebound in September. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle
sales slowed in October after a surge in September, while AAA reported
that gasoline prices fell back in mid-October from one month earlier.
However, building material sales should remain strong as rebuilding from
the storms continued. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% excluding
motor vehicles after September's 1.0% gain.
Consumer Price Index for October (percent change)
Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
CPI +0.1% Flat to +0.2% -- +0.5% +0.4%
CPI Core +0.2% +0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.1% +0.2%
Comments: The CPI is expected to rise only 0.1% in October
following a 0.5% energy-related rise in September. Analysts expect
energy prices to decline after September's 6.1% surge. The core CPI is
forecast to rise 0.2% following an on-trend 0.1% increase in September.
Empire State Index for November (diffusion index)
Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Empire Index 26.0 20.0 to 26.6 -- 30.2 24.4
Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slow to a
reading of 26.0 in November from 30.2 in October.
Business Inventories for September (percent change)
Wednesday, November 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep17 Aug17 Jul17
Inventories +0.1% Flat to +0.4% -- +0.7% +0.3%
Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.1% in
September. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.7% in the
month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.3% and the advance report
pointed to a 1.0% decline for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI
calculation looks for a flat reading for business inventories, so the
median forecast implies analysts expect retail inventories to be revised
higher. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.8% and wholesale sales
surged by 1.3%, while retail trade sales jumped 1.7% in the advance
retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 1.2% increase in
business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales
number.
Weekly Jobless Claims for November 11 week
Thursday, November 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov11 Nov04 Oct28
Weekly Claims 235k 225k to 249k -- 239k 229k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 4,000 to 235,000 in the November 11 week after a 10,000 increase in
the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by 3,000 in
the coming week as the 223,000 level in the October 14 week drops out of
the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no
revisions.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)
Thursday, November 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Phila Fed 25.0 20.0 to 25.7 -- 27.9 23.8
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to decline to a
reading of 25.0 in November following a further gain in October to 27.9.
Industrial Production for October (percent change)
Thursday, November 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Ind Prod +0.5% +0.3% to +1.0% -- +0.3% -0.7%
Cap Util 76.3% 76.2% to 76.9% -- 76.0% 75.8%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% in October
after a 0.3% rebound in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by
24,000 in October, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000 and the
factory workweek was rose to 41.0 hours from 40.8 hours in September.
The ISM production index fell to 61.0 in the current month from 62.2 in
the previous month, but remained strong. Utilities production is
expected to rise modestly in the month after a 1.5% September rebound,
while mining production is forecast to slip after posting a 0.4% gain.
Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.3% from 76.0% in
September.
Housing Starts for October (annual rate, million)
Friday, November 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Starts 1.190m 1.130m to 1.220m -- 1.127m 1.183m
Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is
expected to accelerate to a 1.176 million annual rate in October after a
further decline in September. The NAHB index rebounded in October, a
positive for the housing starts data.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.