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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Mar 6/15:06 EST Mar 6
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Trade in Goods and Services for January (deficit, billion $)
Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18 Dec17 Nov17
Trade Gap -$55.1b -$55.9b to -$54.0b -- -$53.1b -$50.4b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $55.1
billion in January from a $53.1 billion gap in December. The advance
estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened further to $74.4 billion,
with exports down 2.2% and imports down only 0.5%.
Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)
Wednesday, March 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 4Q17r 4Q17p 3Q17
Productivity -0.1% -0.2% to +0.7% -- -0.1% +1.5%
Unit Labor Costs +2.1% +2.0% to +2.5% -- +2.0% -1.2%
Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be unrevised at a
0.1% decline, as the output component was virtually unrevised, but the
gain in hours worked should be revised lower. Unit labor costs are
expected to be revised up to a 2.1% pace of growth.
Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions)
Wednesday, March 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan18 Dec17 Nov17
Cons Cred +$17.8b +$10.0b to +$19.0b -- +$18.4b +$31.0b
Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $17.8 billion in
January after an $18.4 billion increase in December. Retail sales fell
by 0.3% and were flat excluding motor vehicles, even weaker than the
soft revised December figures.
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 3 week
Thursday, March 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar03 Feb24 Feb17
Weekly Claims 220k 215k to 225k -- 210k 220k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 10,000 to 220,000 in the March 3 week, fully reversing the 10,000
decline in the previous week to a 49-year low. The four-week moving
average would fall by 750 in the coming week, as the 223,000 level in
the February 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI
forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Nonfarm Payrolls for February (change in thousands)
Friday, March 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb18 Jan18 Dec17
Payrolls +210k +175k to +250k -- +200k +160k
Private Job +200k +185k to +220k -- +196k +156k
Jobless Rate 4.0% 4.0% to 4.1% -- 4.1% 4.1%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% +0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.3% +0.4%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.4 34.4 to 34.5 -- 34.3 34.5
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 210,000 in
February after a stronger-than-expected 200,000 reading in January. The
unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0%. Hourly earnings are
forecast to rise only 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in January that reflected
difficulties with low wage hourly workers getting to work due to
weather, while the average workweek is expected to rebound to 34.4 hours
after dipping to 34.3 in January for the same reason.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.