US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Mar 9/15:06 EST Mar 9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.    

Treasury Statement for February ($ billions)                            

 Monday, March 12 at 2:00 p.m ET                         Actual:        

             Median           Range              Feb18    Jan18    Feb17

 Balance    -$223.0    -$230.0 to -$216.0           --  +$49.2b -$192.0b

     Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $223.0 billion budget 

deficit for February, wider than the $192.0 billion deficit a year      

earlier. The year/year comparison is valid due to identical calendar    

issues.                                                                 

Consumer Price Index for February (percent change)                      

 Tuesday, March 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 CPI          +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.3%                --   +0.5%  +0.2%

 CPI Core     +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.2%                --   +0.3%  +0.2%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in February following

an outsized 0.5% rise in January. Analysts expect energy prices to      

decline after January's 3.0% rebound. AAA reported another slight       

increase in mid-month prices from January to February, but could see a  

modest decline after seasonal adjustment. The core CPI is forecast to   

rise only 0.2% following a stronger-than-expected 0.3% increase in      

January, with softer readings for apparel and health care after January 

spikes.                                                                 

Producer Price Index for February (percent change)                      

 Wednesday, March 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Final Demand    +0.1%       Flat to +0.2%              --  +0.4%   Flat

 Ex Food,Energy  +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.2%              --  +0.4%  -0.1%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to post a modest 0.1% gain  

in February after an as-expected 0.4% rise in January. Energy prices are

expected to dip after a surge in January, while food prices are expected

to post a small gain after 0.2% decline. Excluding food and energy      

prices, PPI is forecast to rise only 0.2% after an above-expectation    

0.4% increase in the previous month that was led by gains in a variety  

of categories, including trade services.                                

Retail and Food Sales for February (percent change)                     

 Wednesday, March 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Retail Sales  +0.4%      +0.1% to +0.8%                --  -0.3%   Flat

 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.5%      +0.3% to +0.8%                --   Flat  +0.1%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in February after 

a weaker-than-expected 0.3% decline in January. Seasonally adjusted     

industry motor vehicle sales were mildly weaker in February, but should 

not fall as sharply as in January. AAA reported that gasoline prices    

rose further in mid-February from one month earlier, but prices could   

decline after seasonal adjustment. Retail sales are expected to rise    

0.5% excluding motor vehicles after January's flat reading, led by gains

in most categories. The overestimates in January may lead to analysts   

aiming too low for the February data.                                   

Business Inventories for January (percent change)                       

 Wednesday, March 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Inventories  +0.6%        +0.3% to +0.6%               --  +0.4%  +0.4%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.6% in        

January. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.3% in the    

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.8%. The advance report showed 

a 0.8% gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation  

looks for a 0.6% increase for business inventories, so the median       

forecast suggests analysts see a no revision to retail inventories. As  

for sales, factory shipments were up 0.6%, wholesale sales fell 1.1% and

the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.3% decline,         

suggesting a 0.3% decline for business sales, assuming no revision to   

the retail trade sales decline.                                         

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 10 week                                 

 Thursday, March 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Mar10  Mar03  Feb24

 Weekly Claims   228k        225k to 235k               --   231k   210k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 3,000 to 228,000 in the March 10 week after a 21,000 rebound in the  

previous week. The four-week moving average would hold virtually steady 

in the coming week, as the 229,000 level in the February 10 week drops  

out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there  

are no revisions.                                                       

Empire State Index for March (diffusion index)                          

 Thursday, March 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Empire Index    15.0       13.0 to 16.0                --   13.1   17.7

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to partially rebound  

to a reading of 15.0 in March after falling to 13.1 in February.        

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for February (diffusion index)       

 Thursday, March 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Phila Fed       24.0       20.0 to 25.0                --   25.8   22.2

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed reading is forecast to slip         

to a reading of 24.0 after rising to 25.8 in the previous month.        

Housing Starts for February (annual rate, million)                      

 Friday, March 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Starts    1.290m       1.230m to 1.345m                -- 1.326m 1.209m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to pull back to a 1.290 million annual rate in February after  

surging in January. The NAHB index was flat at an elevated level of 72  

in February                                                             

Industrial Production for February (percent change)                     

 Friday, March 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Ind Prod     +0.4%        Flat to +0.7%                --  -0.1%  +0.4%

 Cap Util     77.8%       77.4% to 78.1%                --  77.5%  77.7%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in        

February after a 0.1% decline in the previous month, with manufacturing 

production expected to post a modest increase. Factory payrolls rose by 

31,000 in February, while auto production jobs rose by 6,000 and the    

factory workweek lengthened to 41.0 hours from 40.8 hours in January.   

The ISM production index fell to 62.0 in the current month from 64.5 in 

the previous month. Utilities production is expected to slip in the     

month after a 0.6% January gain, as the weather was warmer than usual   

across most of the US. Mining production is forecast to finally advance 

after posting declines in the previous two months despite a rising rig  

count in January. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 77.8% from

77.5% in January.                                                       

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com