US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Mar 27/16:06 EST Mar 27

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

GDP for Fourth Quarter (third estimate)                                 

 Wednesday, March 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  4Q17t  4Q17s   3Q17

 GDP           +2.7%      +2.5% to +2.8%                --  +2.5%  +3.2%

 Chain Prices  +2.3%      +2.3% to +2.3%                --  +2.3%  +2.1%

     Comments: Analysts expected the third reading of GDP for the fourth

quarter to make little news, with the headline figure revised up        

modestly to +2.7% and the chain price index unrevised at +2.3%. A       

smaller inventory drag is seen as the key factor. Analysts expect growth

to slow further in the first quarter due to a smaller contribution from 

PCE, but to pick up again in the second quarter-in line recent seasonal 

patterns.                                                               

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 24 week                                 

 Thursday, March 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Mar24  Mar17  Mar10

 Weekly Claims   230k        225k to 233k               --   229k   226k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 1,000 to 230,000 in the March 24 week after a 3,000 increase in the  

previous week to keep claims in their recent narrow range. The four-week

moving average would rise by 5,000 in the coming week, as the           

decades-low 210,000 level in the February 24 week drops out of the      

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      

revisions.                                                              

Personal Income for February (percent change)                           

 Thursday, March 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Income        +0.4%      +0.2% to +0.6%                --  +0.4%  +0.4%

 Spending      +0.2%      -0.1% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.4%

 Core Prices   +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.2%                --  +0.3%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in February, 

as payrolls posted a 313,000 surge, hourly earnings rose by 0.1%, but   

average weekly hours rose to 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast 

to rise by 0.2% after a 0.2% January increase, with durables spending   

down due to a decline in auto spending. Total retail sales fell by 0.1% 

in the month and were up only 0.2% excluding a 0.9% drop in motor       

vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and

food services were up 0.1%, indicating modest underlying growth. The    

core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in February    

following a 0.3% gain in January, so the year/year rate would tick up to

1.6% after holding at 1.5% in recent months, but rounding may have more 

to do with the increase than an actual acceleration.                    

MNI Chicago Report for March (index)                                    

 Thursday, March 29 at 9:45 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 MNI Chicago   62.5        61.0 to 64.5                 --   61.9   65.7

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rebound to a reading  

of 62.5 in March after dipping to a still-strong reading of 61.9 in     

February. Other regional data already released were mixed. The Empire   

State reading was up, the Philadelphia Fed reading down, and the Kansas 

City Fed reading unchanged. All indicate solid growth.                  

University of Michigan Survey for March (final)                         

 Thursday, March 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median           Range              Mar18f Mar18p  Feb18

 Consumer Sent  102.0        100.0 to 102.0             --  102.0   99.7

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised   

unrevised at a reading of 102.0 in March, still up from 99.7 in         

February.                                                               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com