US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                               

Weekly Jobless Claims for May 12 week                                   

 Thursday, May 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

                 Median         Range                May12  May05  Apr28

 Weekly Claims   215k        210k to 220k               --   211k   211k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 4,000 to 215,000 in the May 12 employment survey week after holding  

steady at 211,000 in the previous week, so the month/month comparison of

survey weeks would be highly favorable for May payrolls. The four-week  

moving average would fall by 4,500 in the coming week as the 233,000    

level in the April 14 employment survey week drops out of the           

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      

revisions. This would set another recent low point for the average.     

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for May (diffusion index)            

 Thursday, May 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Phila Fed       21.5       17.5 to 22.5                --   23.2   22.3

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall back to a 

reading of 21.5 in May after a slight rise to 23.2 in April.            

Leading Indicators for April (percent change)                           

 Thursday, May 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Leading Index   +0.4%      +0.2% to +0.5%              --  +0.3%  +0.7%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.4% in April. Positive contributions are expected from lower initial   

jobless claims and higher consumer expectations, offset by a negative   

contribution from lower stock prices.                                           

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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