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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 16/17:06 EST May 16
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                               
Weekly Jobless Claims for May 12 week                                   
 Thursday, May 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
                 Median         Range                May12  May05  Apr28
 Weekly Claims   215k        210k to 220k               --   211k   211k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 4,000 to 215,000 in the May 12 employment survey week after holding  
steady at 211,000 in the previous week, so the month/month comparison of
survey weeks would be highly favorable for May payrolls. The four-week  
moving average would fall by 4,500 in the coming week as the 233,000    
level in the April 14 employment survey week drops out of the           
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      
revisions. This would set another recent low point for the average.     
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for May (diffusion index)            
 Thursday, May 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 May18  Apr18  Mar18
 Phila Fed       21.5       17.5 to 22.5                --   23.2   22.3
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall back to a 
reading of 21.5 in May after a slight rise to 23.2 in April.            
Leading Indicators for April (percent change)                           
 Thursday, May 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 Leading Index   +0.4%      +0.2% to +0.5%              --  +0.3%  +0.7%
     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   
0.4% in April. Positive contributions are expected from lower initial   
jobless claims and higher consumer expectations, offset by a negative   
contribution from lower stock prices.                                           
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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