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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 31/17:06 EST May 31
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Nonfarm Payrolls for May (change in thousands)
Friday, June 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range May18 Apr18 Mar18
Payrolls +194k +169k to +217k -- +164k +135k
Private Job +200k +165k to +217k -- +168k +135k
Jobless Rate 3.9% 3.8% to 4.0% -- 3.9% 4.1%
Hrly Earnings +0.2% +0.2% to +0.3% -- +0.1% +0.2%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.4 to 34.5 -- 34.5 34.5
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 194,000 in May
after a weaker-than-expected 164,000 rise in April. The unemployment
rate is expected to hold steady at the 18-year low of 3.9%. Hourly
earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.1% gain, while the average
workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for May (mln units, saar)
Friday, June 1 Actual:
Median Range May18 Apr18 Mar18
Sales Ex GM -- -- -- 9.9m 10.2m
Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to hold roughly
steady in May after slowing in April, though there is some downside risk
as seasonal adjustment factors will subtract significantly from
unadjusted May sales after adding modestly to April sales.
Construction Spending for April (percent change)
Friday, June 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Apr18 Mar18 Feb18
Construction +0.8% +0.5% to +1.0% -- -1.7% +1.0%
Comments: Construction spending is expected to rose by 0.8% in
April. Housing starts fell in the month, suggesting private residential
building pulled back further after a large March dip.
ISM Manufacturing Index for May
Friday, June 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range May18 Apr18 Mar18
Mfg ISM 58.9 56.8 to 60.0 -- 57.3 59.3
Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rebound
modestly to a reading of 58.9 in May after declining further to 57.3 in
April. Regional conditions data have pointed overwhelmingly to improved
conditions.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.