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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.
Consumer Credit for May (dollar change, billions)                       
 Monday, July 9 at 3:00 p.m. ET                          Actual:        
              Median        Range                  May18   Apr18   Mar18
 Cons Cred    +13.8b  +$12.0b to +$15.5b              --  +$9.3b +$12.3b
     Comments: The level of consumer credit is expected to rise by $13.8
billion in May, as retail sales jumped by 0.8% and were up 0.9%         
excluding a 0.5% gain in motor vehicle sales.                           
Producer Price Index for June (percent change)                          
 Wednesday, July 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Jun18  May18  Apr18
 Final Demand     +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.5%  +0.1%
 Ex Food,Energy   +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.3%  +0.2%
     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise only 0.2% in June   
after a solid 0.5% gain in May. Energy prices are expected to show a    
more modest increase following a 4.6% May surge, while food prices are  
expected to post another small gain. Excluding food and energy prices,  
PPI is forecast to rise 0.3%, the same as in the previous month.        
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 7 week                                   
 Thursday, July 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jul07  Jun30  Jun23
 Weekly Claims   226k      226k to 226k                 --   231k   228k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 5,000 to 226,000 in the July 7 holiday week after rising by 3,000 to 
231,000 in the previous week, keeping the level in its tight range. The 
four-week moving average would still rise by 1,250 in the coming week as
the 221,000 level in the June 9 week drops out of the calculation,      
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        
Consumer Price Index for June (percent change)                          
 Thursday, July 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Jun18  May18  Apr18
 CPI           +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.2%                --  +0.2%  +0.2%
 CPI Core      +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.2%                --  +0.2%  +0.1%
     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% for a third straight    
month in June. The year/year rates should stabilize after moving higher 
in May. AAA reported another modest gain in mid-month prices from May,  
which could support a further increase in CPI gasoline prices, while    
food prices are seen adding modestly. The core CPI is forecast to also  
rise 0.2% following an as-expected 0.2% increase in May, with the       
relatively large housing categories holding steady.                     
Treasury Statement for June ($ billions)                                
 Thursday, July 12 at 2:00 p.m ET                        Actual:        
             Median           Range              Jun18    May18    May17
 Balance    -$102.0b   -$102.0b to -$102.0b          -- -$146.8b -$90.2b
     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a larger budget      
deficit for June than the $90.2 billion gap in June 2017. July 1 fell on
a weekend in both years, so outlays were shifted into June. The impact  
of the tax cuts should continue to be seen in the data in the form of   
lower tax receipts and wider budget gaps.                               
University of Michigan Survey for July (preliminary)                    
 Friday, July 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
                Median        Range                 Jul18p Jun18f  May18
 Consumer Sent   98.5      98.0 to 99.0                 --   98.2   98.0
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise very    
slightly to 98.5 in early-July from 98.2 in June. A balance between     
favorable current conditions and trade concerns weighing on future      
expectations has kept the headline index roughly unchanged since April. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email:

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