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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 2/17:06 EST Aug 2
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18 
 Payrolls       +190k    +182k to +207k                --  +213k  +244k 
 Private Job    +200k    +185k to +208k                --  +202k  +239k 
 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.8% to 4.0%                 --   4.0%   3.8% 
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.3% 
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5 
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in July 
after a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in June. The unemployment   
rate is expected to slip back to 3.9% after rebounding to 4.0% in June. 
Hourly earnings are forecast to post another 0.2% gain, but the         
year/year rate could decline on base effects, while the average workweek
is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for the sixth straight month.         
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               
 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                Jun18   May18   Apr18
 Trade Gap    -$46.1b  -$47.0b to -45.4b              -- -$43.1b -$46.2b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $46.1
billion in June from $43.1 billion in May. The impact of the tariffs may
be seen in force in the data starting this month. The advance estimate  
of the Census goods trade gap widened to $68.3 billion, as export fell  
and imports rose.                                                       
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July                                    
 Friday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 ISM NMI         58.7     57.9 to 59.5                  --   59.1   58.6
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fell to a  
reading of 58.7 in July from 59.1 in June. The Philadelphia             
nonmanufacturing index rose to 44.3, while the flash Markit Services    
index fell slightly to 56.2.                                            
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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